615
FXAK67 PAJK 041820
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1020 AM AKDT SAT APR 4 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOLLOWING 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY IMPACTING THE SOUTH BUT REACHING TO THE
GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL REGION WITH RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
- ANOTHER FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY,
BRINGING MORE RAIN WITH SHOWERS BEHIND.
- RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY JUST
TOUCHING UP WINDS AND QPF WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS. A LOW
STILL SITS IN THE EASTERN GULF, HAVING MOVED NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND IS DRAPED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, BRINGING RAIN TO PARTS OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
SNOW TO COMMUNITIES IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR PANHANDLE ARE STILL SEEING RAIN WITH THE BACK HALF OF
THIS BAND, AS WELL AS YAKUTAT WITH THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE. THIS
BAND IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE MORNING, BRINGING CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR
WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING BEHIND. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A WEAKER, YET MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION NORTH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING THE SAME
TRACK INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE BROADENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LINGER IN THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
CONTINUING SHOWER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER LOW JUMPS UP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BAND STARTS TO DECOUPLE FROM THE INITIAL LOW AND IS
PUSHING NORTH A BIT FASTER THAN THE MAIN FRONT. THE MAIN FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO SEE RAIN WITH THIS FRONT, MINUS YAKUTAT WHICH MAY
MANAGE TO AVOID MOST PRECIPITATION. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE THE MOST RAINFALL WITH THE BAND SLIGHTLY LINGERING
OVER THE AREA, WITH BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, AND AROUND 1
TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL MISS MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WITH LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED, THOUGH THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS MAY SEE MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO PUSH WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING
AS THE INITIAL FRONT ROTATES AROUND THE LOW. THE FRONT ON SUNDAY
MAY BRING INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
DIXON ENTRANCE, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH.
LONG TERM
FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, A LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK NORTH IN THE PANHANDLE BRINGING MORE
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO FALL AS RAIN WITH THE WARMER ORIGIN OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW MIXING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DON'T LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT THOUGH FOR PLACES
NEAR SEA LEVEL. AFTER THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE,
SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA. HEADED INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF BRINGING A BREAK
TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH
PRESSURE STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS IS HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MARINE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF.
HEADED INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WE LOOK TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR 6 TO 10 DAYS OUT
WHILE 2 WEEKS OUT LOOK TO BE AROUND NEAR NORMAL ACCORDING CPC
OUTLOOK GUIDANCES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
CONTINUE TO BRING A DROP FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE
SHOWERS MOVE FROM S TO N THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING CIGS DOWN TO 1500 TO
2500 FT. VIS WILL BE 5SM OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO THE RAINFALL NOT CAUSING AS MUCH VIS
RESTRICTION AS THE SNOW STILL MIXING IN TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING, THE NORTH SEEING SOME LOWER VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN
TO 3 TO 5SM AT TIMES. THIS WILL BEGIN TO TURN FULLY TO RAIN THIS
MORNING, WITH VIS LARGELY REMAINING 5 TO 6SM OR GREATER FOR THE
REST OF TODAY EVEN AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH. WIND WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE DAY AT THE
SURFACE, AND LLWS REMAINS NOT A CONCERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, BRINGING
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STARTING
AROUND 12Z AS LOWER CIGS OF 2000 TO 3000 FT MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH IN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER POW
ISLAND, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND WITH LOWERED VIS TO 4 TO 5SM AND
CIGS TO AOB 1500 FT AFTER AROUND 16Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE-
LY AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AT THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
SOME LLWS CONCERNS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, WITH BETWEEN
30 TO 40 KT WINDS EXPECTED AT 2000 FT WITH THE HIGHEST ALONG AND
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF POW COMING IN AT THE TAIL END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DIRECT SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A
SHORTWAVE WILL SEND A MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH BREEZES PUSHING ALONG THE COAST
FROM CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE EDGECUMBE. THESE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS
WILL BRING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ALONG THE COAST DECREASING THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY 3 TO 4 FT SWELL DIMINISHING TO 1 TO 2
FT BY THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING FRESH
BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS, DECREASING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OUT OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART LATE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.
SO EXPECT A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW AGAIN AND A WHAT LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK FEATURE NEAR MID WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS: A LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS KEEPING INNER
CHANNEL WIND SPEEDS FROM TRULY CALMING DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED MODERATE BREEZES
UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THE HOT SPOTS THAT ARE CONTINUING TO SEE GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING ARE AROUND POINT COUVERDEN, SCULL ISLAND, AND
FIVE FINGER LIGHTHOUSE, BUT THEY HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CALM DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WILL PICK BACK UP TO FRESH BREEZES WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL BAND MOVING IN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY THE FRONT, WITH THE ONLY
PLACES POTENTIALLY SEEING ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY BEING
EASTERLY OUTFLOW THROUGH CROSS SOUND AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN
AND SCULL ISLAND. 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH STRONGER WINDS BRINGING SEAS UP TO 3 FT. CHANNEL
ENTRANCES CAN EXPECT TO SEE 4 TO 5 FT SEAS WHEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...ZTK
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