452
FXAK67 PAJK 050555 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
951 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2026
AVIATION UPDATE
FOR THE LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE, WE ARE
STILL SEEING SPOTTY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT, DROPPING CIGS AND VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR AT TIMES. THAT TREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK ACROSS THE AREA WITH PREVAILING CIGS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOWERING AFTER 12Z AS A DEEPER BATCH
OF MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
WEAK LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC THAT WILL PASS JUST WEST OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND SUNDAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE LOWEST
CIGS AND A BIT STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT, AND
THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM THE SE TO S (30 TO 40 KT) IN THE LOWEST
2 THOUSAND FEET AGL EXPECTED 18Z-03Z IN LLWS FOR KLAWOCK, PETERSBURG,
WRANGELL AND SITKA. BASICALLY, CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE MINOR BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. 05/GARMON
MARINE UPDATE
MINOR UPDATES ADDRESSED IN THE EARLY EVENING
UPDATE WE ISSUED FOR THE INSIDE WATERS COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
(CWFAJK). MAIN THING WAS TO ADD A BIT WIND ON THE BACKSIDE OF
DOUGLAS ISLAND FOR STEPHENS PASSAGE (SCULL ISLAND AND YOUNGS BAY
AREAS) AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS 20-30 KTS
DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOR TOMORROW, WE ADDED A BIT MORE
WINDS (AROUND 15 KTS) FOR THE INCREASED NORTHERLY FLOW TOMORROW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CHATOM STRAIT (SOUTH OF THE FREDERICK SOUND
ENTRANCE) AND FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SUMNER STRAIT SOUTH OF
POINT BAKER. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM AKDT SAT APR 4 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONTAL BAND LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY,
BRINGING MORE RAIN WITH SHOWERS BEHIND.
- RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE
FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SUNDAY / WEAK SHOWERS FOR THE PANHANDLE
SORT OF SCATTERED ACROSS THE LENGTH, BUT NOT ALL SITES HAVE
REPORTED THE SHOWERS. A NEW SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD PAST
HAIDA GWAI'I INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
THE RAIN BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO STAY
OFF SHORE AND SKIRT THE COAST. EXPECTING TO BE WEST OF THE SITKA
AREA AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. AS FRONT MOVES NORTH LOOKS LIKE THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE MAY BE DRY EARLY SUNDAY HAVE LOW CHANCES IN
GUSTAVUS TO JUNEAU REGION TO TO ABOUT 10 AM AND THE RAIN BY MID
AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
YAKUTAT AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AFTER SOME
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS NOT TOO HEAVY, THREE
QUARTERS TO AN INCH FOR SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
QUARTER TO 1/2 INCH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THERE IS A
WEAK SECOND WAVE FOR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE SOUTHERN.
LONG TERM...PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE. AT
THIS TIME, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. CURRENTLY
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND STRONG BREEZES TO LOW END GALES OF 25 TO
35 KTS OVER THE GULF. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BOTH LIGHTEN
THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE SOUTH, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 17 TO 27 KTS CONTINUING.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE STICKING AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS IS
HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARINE LAYER TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF. THE
MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS MARINE LAYER WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THAT
CAN IMPACT MARINE TRAVEL.
STARTING MID WEEK, THERE IS STARTING TO BE MORE AGREEMENT ON A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
AS RAIN, BUT TIMES OF A MIX OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVER
NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BEHIND THIS
LOW, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN. STAY TUNED AS
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST AND THIS FINALLY
SEASONAL / SPRING LIKE WEATHER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... WEAK SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BRING
DROPS FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS CIGS
DROP TO AOB 2000 FT DURING SHOWERS TONIGHT. SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BRING PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT,
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR AS THE MORE ORGANIZED BAND
PASSES OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE NOW WITH CIGS SITTING BETWEEN
800 AND 1500 FT. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE CLEARING INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS SHOWERS DIMINISH TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RETURNING TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING. THIS WILL LAST UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL NOT
IMPACT THE AREAS AROUND AND NORTH OF ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR UNTIL
JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INTERMITTENT DROPS
FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR AS SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONT, ALONGSIDE SOME GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AS SHOWERS MOVE
OVER. A RETURN TO MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS
THE NEXT FRONT PUSHES IN BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z TO POW ISLAND,
KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE ISLAND. AS THIS FIRST FRONT PUSHES
NORTHWARD INTO TOMORROW MORNING, REACHING THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
AROUND 18Z, CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL FALL TO 1000 TO 2000 FT ALONGSIDE 4 TO 5SM VIS. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM SW TO NE BEGINNING
WITH POW AROUND 18Z AND MOVING NE THROUGH 00Z, KEEPING FLYING
CONDITIONS AT MVFR WITH CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BRING
CALMER WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KT, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE.
LLWS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARILY A CONCERN ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND THE OUTER COASTLINE UP TO BARANOF
ISLAND. EXPECTING SE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT AT 2000 FT WITH THE
FIRST FRONT BECOMING S 30 TO 40 KT INTO THE MORNING.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: THE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CONTINUES TO
DIRECT SHOWERS INTO THE PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING FRESH BREEZES WITH STRONG GUSTS
THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 7 FT WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS, DECREASING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A RIDGE OUT
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART
LATE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. SO EXPECT A SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW AGAIN AND A WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK FEATURE
NEAR MID WEEK.
INSIDE WATERS: WHILE THE INNER CHANNEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM
DOWN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ( 15 KT OR LESS ), THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS WILL PICK BACK UP TO FRESH BREEZES WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
BAND MOVING IN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE
DOESN'T LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY THE FRONT, WITH THE ONLY PLACES
POTENTIALLY SEEING ELEVATED WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY BEING EASTERLY
OUTFLOW THROUGH CROSS SOUND AND AROUND POINT COUVERDEN AND SCULL
ISLAND. 1 TO 2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH STRONGER WINDS BRINGING SEAS UP TO 3 FT. CHANNEL ENTRANCES
CAN EXPECT TO SEE 4 TO 5 FT SEAS WHEN THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-661-662.
AVIATION UPDATE...GARMON
MARINE UPDATE...GARMON
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...BRUNSEN
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...BEZENEK
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