451
FXAK67 PAJK 051404
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
604 AM AKDT SUN APR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A MORE TYPICAL SPRING SYSTEM WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY,
BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME WIND TO OUR WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
- RAIN SPREADS NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, REACHING THE ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MUCH MORE TYPICAL SPRING
WEATHER CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST, WITH AN ADDITIONAL
SYSTEM LIFTING ALONG THE COAST, BRINGING SOME WIND, WARM AIR, AND
RAIN. THE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE SOUTH, AS
SEEN WITH THE 4PM PANT SOUNDING SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE
TO STABILIZE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE TODAY, WITH
A TRANSITION TO STRATIFORM RAINFALL. FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
COMMUNITIES, EXPECT RAINFALL TO PICK UP LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO YAKUTAT/HAINES/SKAGWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.
WARM SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG RIDGETOPS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40
KNOTS SUNDAY, FREEZING LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OR REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE, REACHING AS HIGH AS 4000 FT OVER PRINCE OF
WALES, AND MAINTAINING AT 1000 TO 2000 FT IN THE JUNEAU AREA.
HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT, COLDER AIR
WILL BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY AND DROP FREEZING LEVELS BACK TO
NEAR OR BELOW 1000 FT, WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS ABLE TO BRING QUICK
HITS OF WET/HEAVY SNOW. GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OR ACCUMULATIONS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR AVIATORS IN REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY.
LONG TERM
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO THE VERY BEGINNING OF
THE WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AT THIS TIME, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO INCREASE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
CURRENTLY WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND STRONG BREEZES TO LOW END
GALES OF 25 TO 35 KTS OVER THE GULF. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
THEN BOTH LIGHTEN THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF. STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE
SOUTH, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF
17 TO 27 KTS CONTINUING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGH PRESSURE STICKING
AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS IS HIGH AS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MARINE LAYER
TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS MARINE LAYER
WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES THAT CAN IMPACT MARINE TRAVEL.
STARTING MID WEEK, THERE IS STARTING TO BE MORE AGREEMENT ON A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND
THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY TO REMAIN
AS RAIN, BUT TIMES OF A MIX OR SNOW ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVER
NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. BEHIND THIS
LOW, ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN. STAY TUNED AS
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST AND THIS FINALLY
SEASONAL / SPRING LIKE WEATHER.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z MONDAY/
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF &
APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE, REACHING THE PASI AREA LATE TONIGHT,
AREA AIRPORTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PAYA WILL EXPERIENCE CIG & VIS
CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. CONDITIONS MAY
TEMPORARILY DIP DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY UNDER THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE LATER ON IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THE PAYA AREA SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH ONLY VCSH AS THEY WILL HAVE
LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. SFC WINDS MAY GET A
BIT GUSTY AROUND THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AS IT PUSHES
NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREAS. ALSO, FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE,
ALONG & OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LLWS MAGNITUDES UP AT AROUND 2 KFT
OF GENERALLY AROUND 30 TO 40 KT OUT OF A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
ARE ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):AS OF 3AM SUNDAY MORNING,
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT ESE WINDS
OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES FOR THE MAJORITY OF OUR COAST;
HOWEVER, AMSR2 PASSES HIGHLIGHT FRESH BREEZES NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE.
A VARIETY OF WAVE SYSTEMS ARE PRESENT BUT FOR SIMPLICITY, THE
DOMINANT WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, 3 TO 4 FT AT 9 TO 11
SECONDS, WITH SOME SOUTHERLY WIND CHOP FOCUSED NEAR 5 TO 6
SECONDS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT. OVER THE COURSE OF
SUNDAY A LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST, INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG
BREEZES TO NEAR GALES FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS
SOUTH TO DIXON. FOR THESE AREAS, FRESH SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9
FT OUT OF THE SE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF AK TO BECOME WNW, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR-
GALE FORCE, FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, GENERATING FRESH SEAS
FROM THE WNW OF 12 FT TO 15 FT ALONG OUR COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS AIMED TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES.
INSIDE: AS A SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY, THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS,
WITH RAINFALL BRINGING MORE TYPICAL AK SPRING WEATHER. MARINERS
PLANNING ON NAVIGATING THE REGION SUNDAY SHOULD PLAN FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE E TO SE, REACHING SPEEDS OF FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES (17 TO 27 KNOTS) AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. MARINERS
NAVIGATING LYNN CANAL WILL SEE LESS WIND, WITH NORTHERLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KNOTS) FORECASTED; HOWEVER, THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO YOUNG BAY AND PT. COUVERDEN WILL SEE EASTERLY
WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW FOR WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
FREDERICK SOUND, WITH THE WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES LIKELY
SEEING THE HIGHEST WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-035-036-641>644-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...AP
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page