382
FXAK67 PAJK 060615 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 PM AKDT SUN APR 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN SPREADS NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING, REACHING THE HAINES AND
SKAGWAY LATE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / SURFACE LOW MOVING UP TO
WEST OF CROSS SOUND AREA SUNDAY EVENING, WHERE IT WILL STALL AND
THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE GENERAL TROUGH OF LOWER
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE PANHANDLE IS FAIRLY PREVALENT WITH LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAINFALL. A SECONDARY WAVE WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT, BRINING MORE RAIN INTO THAT REGION.
THE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME SHOWERS NEAR YAKUTAT THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD BE
KEEPING THEM ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THINGS.
MOVING INTO MONDAY NIGHT THE GENERAL TROUGH AND BAND OF MOISTURE
WILL START TO SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE OVER THE WEST-
CENTRAL GULF MOVES MORE TO THE EASTERN GULF. AS IT DOES THERE IS
A SLOW IMPROVING TREND IN THE LOWER OF POPS FOR THE MAIN
PANHANDLE.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE PREVIOUS WINTER
PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SPRINGTIME
TRAJECTORY. A PARADE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF ARE BRINGING WITH THEM TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARDS, AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE GRIP OF THE
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND OVER THE YUKON HAS BEEN LARGELY
BROKEN, MINIMIZING THE CHANCES OF ANY TRULY COLDER AIR MASSES TO
SUCCESSFULLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO SE AK.
TUESDAY KICKS OFF WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT LOW. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THIS RIDGE WILL DELIVER CHANCES OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK AND THE INTERIOR COAST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE GREATER CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOME ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THROUGH
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SE AK. AT THIS TIME, AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER. WITH MAYBE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING STRONG
BREEZE (22-27 KT), BUT NOTHING MORE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
WEAK NORTHERLY OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH ANY ACTUAL COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN
LIMITED IN NATURE.
AVIATION
AS OF 06Z MONDAY. THE FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS HAINES WITH CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO MVFR
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. THESE TOOK LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED TO FALL TO THIS LEVEL THIS EVENING, BUT ARE LOWERING MORE
QUICKLY NOW THAT IT IS NIGHTTIME. SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE BROKEN
CIGS TO 1500FT INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER, THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND EXPECT THE CAA TO CAUSE THE
STEADY RAIN TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY AFTER THE WIND SHIFT TO THE SW.
THEREFORE HAVE INTRODUCED SOME BKN CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
LLWS IS STARTING TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RESURGENCE WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS GOING
INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY A
LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE COAST, INCREASING WINDS TO STRONG BREEZES
TO NEAR GALES FOR COASTAL AREAS FROM FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS SOUTH TO
DIXON. FOR THESE AREAS, FRESH SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT OUT OF
THE SE.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD FRONT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW SUNDAY NIGHT. ANTICIPATE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF AK TO BECOME WNW, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF NEAR-
GALE FORCE, FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE, GENERATING FRESH SEAS
FROM THE WNW OF 12 FT TO 15 FT ALONG OUR COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
SEAS AIMED TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES.
INSIDE CHANNELS : AS A SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY, THE PRIMARY THREAT IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS, WITH RAINFALL BRINGING MORE TYPICAL AK SPRING WEATHER.
MARINERS PLANNING ON NAVIGATING THE REGION SUNDAY SHOULD PLAN FOR
WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE E TO SE, REACHING SPEEDS OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES (17 TO 27 KNOTS) AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
MARINERS NAVIGATING LYNN CANAL WILL SEE LESS WIND, WITH NORTHERLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES (7 TO 16 KNOTS) FORECASTED; HOWEVER,
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO YOUNG BAY AND PT. COUVERDEN WILL SEE
EASTERLY WINDS OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WNW FOR WATERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, WITH THE WESTERN COAST OF PRINCE OF
WALES LIKELY SEEING THE HIGHEST WINDS OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-035-036-641>644-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...FERRIN
MARINE...BEZENEK
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