098
FXAK67 PAJK 061835 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT MON APR 6 2026
MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS WEAKENING LOW CONTINUES
TO MOVE INLAND, CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PORT ALEXANDER ON S
BARANOF. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE S PANHANDLE WITH THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TRANSITIONING TO
PREDOMINATELY RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, DECREASING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S ONCE MORE.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A LOW
NEAR BARANOF ISLAND PUSHES INLAND, WORST CONDITIONS WITH IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VISBYS ONGOING ALONG ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR TERMINALS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX REPORTED AT PAGS AND PAJN. FURTHER SOUTH, RAIN IS
ONGOING ALONG AND SOUTH OF SITKA TO HOONAH TO PETERSBURG,
PREDOMINATE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH CIGS 1500 TO 2500FT WITH
AN UNDERLYING FEW TO SCT DECK AROUND 500 TO 1000FT.
THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY AFTERNOON, ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO RAIN AS DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MORE OF A
TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW
DEPARTING AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY
MOVING OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH MVFR
DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT PERIODS OF
VFR EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE AS ON- SHORE
FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KETCHIKAN AND SKAGWAY. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL SEE LOW LEVEL NW-LY WINDS 00 TO 06Z
ACROSS W POW AROUND 30 TO 35KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 542 AM AKDT MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- TYPICAL SOUTHEAST AK SPRING WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN AND
PERIODS OF A SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE COAST AND SOUTHERN AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SPEEDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 35 MPH.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY, A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL FULLY
MATURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST, DRAGGING A SURFACE LOW AND FRONT EAST AS
IT PUSHES INTO CANADA. A FEW CONSEQUENCES OF THIS LOW WILL BE A
SECONDARY, ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER, SURGE OF MOISTURE, ALONG WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON STOUT WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AS OF 5AM
THERE ARE SCATTERED REPORTS OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE,
WITH LIGHT SNOW FALLING AT THE JUNEAU FORECAST OFFICE. ANTICIPATE
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH PERIODS OF
SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX BETWEEN RAIN. DEEPER INSTABILITY IN THE
SOUTH COULD RESULT IN ICE PELLETS UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS, WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY COVER UP SURFACES BEFORE MELTING. ANTICIPATE
PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE PREVIOUS WINTER
PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY MOVE TOWARDS A MORE SPRINGTIME
TRAJECTORY. A PARADE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES
MOVING IN FROM THE GULF ARE BRINGING WITH THEM TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL SLOWLY TREND UPWARDS, AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO PLAY A
BIGGER ROLE WITH EACH PASSING DAY. CONCURRENTLY, THE GRIP OF THE
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE INTERIOR AND OVER THE YUKON HAS BEEN LARGELY
BROKEN, MINIMIZING THE CHANCES OF ANY TRULY COLDER AIR MASSES TO
SUCCESSFULLY WORK THEIR WAY INTO SE AK.
TUESDAY KICKS OFF WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDING OVER THE GULF IN
THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT LOW. MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THIS RIDGE WILL DELIVER CHANCES OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK AND THE INTERIOR COAST
MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE GREATER CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOME ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NE GULF COAST. THROUGH
THURSDAY, THE RIDGE FLATTENS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF SE AK. AT THIS TIME, AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN
THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM,
AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL LIKELY BE THE FAVORED
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WINDS DON'T LOOK ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE EITHER. WITH MAYBE SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING STRONG
BREEZE (22-27 KT), BUT NOTHING MORE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM,
WEAK NORTHERLY OUTFLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
ALTHOUGH ANY ACTUAL COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN
LIMITED IN NATURE.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
EARLY MONDAY MORNING ASCAT/AMSR2 AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHTS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
PANHANDLE, WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FORECASTED FOR
OUR COASTAL WATERS; HIGHEST WINDS SOUTH OF CAPE EDGECUMBE. COASTAL
BUOYS ARE SHOWING DOMINANT BUT DECAYING SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST,
5 TO 7 FT FOCUSED AT 6 TO 10 SECONDS. OVER THE DAY, WESTERLY FRESH
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WAVE SPECTRUM, REACHING 10 TO 15
FT, WITH THE HIGHEST SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AIMED AT DIXON
ENTRANCE. FOR MARINERS TRANSITING THE NORTHERN COAST FROM THE
FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO CAPE ST. ELIAS SHOULD ANTICIPATE SEAS
BUILDING OUT OF THE WEST, REACHING 6 TO 9 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WHILE MOST INNER CHANNELS ARE SEEING WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LIGHTER IN SOME REGIONS, THE MAIN
THREAT IS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PASSING
LOW EJECTS FURTHER EAST INTO CANADA. SIMPLY PUT, MAKE READY FOR
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR MANY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT; SUSTAINED WINDS OF
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS REACHING NEAR-GALE
FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS IN WATERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
AND ALSO CROSS SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661-662.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-033-642>644-651-663-664-671-
672.
UPDATE..NM
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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