441
FXAK67 PAJK 062245
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
245 PM AKDT MON APR 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS IS ON OUR DOORSTEP, BRINGING A SHIFT
IN WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND
SPREADING SOUTH BY THURSDAY
- DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO LEAD SE AK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A WEAKENING LOW MOVING INLAND NEAR KETCHIKAN AT TIME OF WRITING,
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF BEING LEFT IN ITS PLACE
UPSTREAM. THE RESULT IS A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS IN COMMUNITIES
FROM ANGOON SOUTHWARD, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO WEST FACING
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAIN, RELYING ON CLOUD COVER
AND SOLAR HEATING. WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A HIGH MAGNITUDE RIDGE IS
INTERRUPTED BY A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ALONG THE
RIDGE. THE RESULT IS A SOMEWHAT FLAT RIDGE, AND WITH IT MOISTURE,
CLOUD COVER, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE ICY STRAIT
AREA ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MODERATE OUT THE RIDGE, HOW MUCH WILL THIS IMPACT CLEARING AND
WARMING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON, AND THE RESULTING
STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND AND THE COASTLINE.
NATURALLY, A TEMPERATURE UPDATE MAY BE NECESSARY TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SET UP, BUT WHAT CAN
BE SAID IS THAT SE AK IS IN FOR MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, INSTEAD OF THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
DEALT WITH ALL MARCH.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HINTS OF SPRING WILL CONTINUE TO GRACE THE PANHANDLE OVER THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL BE REINFORCED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN, SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AT SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SOME MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. OVERALL THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL SURFACE REFLECTIONS AND THUS KEEP SEAS TO
AT OR BELOW 6 FT IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO NOT
BE THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KT) AT
MOST. ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLE WILL BE REPLACED BY OFFSHORE AND/OR PARALLEL FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF.
WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, MODEST
SEA BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE INNER
CHANNELS. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST
FEATURE EXITS THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD THEN BE OFFSET BY
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND OVERALL
RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. OVERALL
IT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET AND BENIGN PATTERN AHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT AS THE LOW FROM THIS MORNING IS CURRENTLY SITUATED
BETWEEN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND KETCHIKAN. THROUGH THE REST OF
MONDAY AFTERNOON, ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TURN TO RAIN AS
DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN. MORE OF A TRANSITION PERIOD THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEPARTING AND A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF GRADUALLY MOVING OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW WITH MVFR DOMINATING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WITH BRIEF IMPROVEMENT PERIODS OF VFR EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DECREASES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE ALONG THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS ON-
SHORE FLOW BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS,
OUTSIDE OF SKAGWAY WHICH WILL SEE SUSTAINED UP TO 20KTS THROUGH
THE EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT LLWS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
WILL SEE LOW LEVEL NW-LY WINDS THROUGH 06Z ACROSS W POW AROUND 30
TO 35KTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE WATERS: A BUILDING RIDGE WITH A LOW PASSING
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL KEEP STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN
THE FORECAST WITH MUCH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, DIMINISHING BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SIMILARLY, SEAS WILL BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND, WITH THE LOCALIZED AREA OF SWELL PASSING INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS 10 - 17 FT AT 10
SECONDS WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 5 - 7 FT AT 8 SECONDS BY THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: HIGHEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM IS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, SPECIFICALLY CLARENCE
STRAIT. A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CHANNEL SHORTLY AT TIME OF WRITING, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW
QUADRANT OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND CURRENTLY NEAR KETCHIKAN.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN CLARENCE, CHATHAM,
FREDERICK, AND SUMNER WITH THIS SURGE. FOR TUESDAY, SOMEWHAT MORE
UNCERTAIN FORECAST PARTICULARLY IN THE ICY STRAIT AND CHATHAM
STRAIT FORECAST. DAYTIME HEATING IN SE AK, YUKON, AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL RESULT IN A THERMAL AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE LYNN CANAL AREA, WITH WINDS UP TO A FRESH BREEZE. IT IS
CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THIS WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO ICY STRAIT
AND CHATHAM STRAIT, WITH WINDS BEING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS AROUND SISTERS ISLAND, POINT COUVERDEN, AND POINT CRAVENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-661.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-642>644-651-662>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NC
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