154
FXAK67 PAJK 070551
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
951 PM AKDT MON APR 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE
06Z TAFS AND FOR THE ADDITION TO THE END OF THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 245 PM AKDT MON APR 6
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS IS ON OUR DOORSTEP, BRINGING A SHIFT
IN WINDS AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND
SPREADING SOUTH BY THURSDAY
- DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO LEAD SE AK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAKENING LOW MOVING INLAND NEAR KETCHIKAN AT TIME OF WRITING,
WITH A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN GULF BEING LEFT IN ITS PLACE
UPSTREAM. THE RESULT IS A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS IN COMMUNITIES
FROM ANGOON SOUTHWARD, ALONG WITH RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND LOCALIZING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION TO WEST FACING
MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCERTAIN, RELYING ON CLOUD COVER
AND SOLAR HEATING. WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A HIGH MAGNITUDE RIDGE IS
INTERRUPTED BY A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING ALONG THE
RIDGE. THE RESULT IS A SOMEWHAT FLAT RIDGE, AND WITH IT MOISTURE,
CLOUD COVER, AND ADDITIONAL SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THE ICY STRAIT
AREA ON TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
MODERATE OUT THE RIDGE, HOW MUCH WILL THIS IMPACT CLEARING AND
WARMING IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE YUKON, AND THE RESULTING
STRENGTH OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND AND THE COASTLINE.
NATURALLY, A TEMPERATURE UPDATE MAY BE NECESSARY TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON WHERE MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER SET UP, BUT WHAT CAN
BE SAID IS THAT SE AK IS IN FOR MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, INSTEAD OF THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
DEALT WITH ALL MARCH.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HINTS OF SPRING WILL CONTINUE TO GRACE THE PANHANDLE OVER THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL BE REINFORCED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN, SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AT SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SOME MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. OVERALL THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL SURFACE REFLECTIONS AND THUS KEEP SEAS TO
AT OR BELOW 6 FT IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO NOT
BE THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KT) AT
MOST. ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLE WILL BE REPLACED BY OFFSHORE AND/OR PARALLEL FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF.
WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, MODEST
SEA BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE INNER
CHANNELS. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST
FEATURE EXITS THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD THEN BE OFFSET BY
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND OVERALL
RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. OVERALL
IT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET AND BENIGN PATTERN AHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE NBM HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN LATE WEEKEND AND BRINGING A LOW OUT INTO THE GULF AND TRYING
TO SWING A FRONT WITH RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO HIGH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND CAPPED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP TO CHANCE.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MILDER, MORE SEASONABLE SPRING
TIME TEMPS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/ VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS BEING THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY COME TO AN
END ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. WITH THE LOW CLOUD DECKS THOUGH, SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MIGHT BE POSSIBLE THOUGH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE SAME GOING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME IMPROVEMENTS MIGHT BE NOTICED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS SHOULD STICK
AROUND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
BREAK IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF AND CLEARING SKIES DURING THE DAY, ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME SEA
BREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
ONWARD. AS FOR ICING AND TURBULENCE CONCERNS, THE FOLKS AT AAWU
ARE HIGHLIGHTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLE FOR SOME POTENTIAL ISOLATED
MODERATE TURBULENCE AND ISOLATED MODERATE ICING TOWARDS THE COAST
MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS: A BUILDING RIDGE WITH A LOW PASSING
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL KEEP STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES IN
THE FORECAST WITH MUCH OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS, DIMINISHING BY
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SIMILARLY, SEAS WILL BE ON
THE DOWNWARD TREND, WITH THE LOCALIZED AREA OF SWELL PASSING INTO
DIXON ENTRANCE EARLY THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS 10 - 17 FT AT 10
SECONDS WILL DIMINISH DOWN TO 5 - 7 FT AT 8 SECONDS BY THE MORNING
HOURS OF TUESDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: HIGHEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT
TERM IS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE, SPECIFICALLY CLARENCE
STRAIT. A WESTERLY SURGE OF WINDS TO 20 KNOTS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CHANNEL SHORTLY AT TIME OF WRITING, ASSOCIATED WITH THE SW
QUADRANT OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND CURRENTLY NEAR KETCHIKAN.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS IN CLARENCE, CHATHAM,
FREDERICK, AND SUMNER WITH THIS SURGE. FOR TUESDAY, SOMEWHAT MORE
UNCERTAIN FORECAST PARTICULARLY IN THE ICY STRAIT AND CHATHAM
STRAIT FORECAST. DAYTIME HEATING IN SE AK, YUKON, AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA WILL RESULT IN A THERMAL AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE LYNN CANAL AREA, WITH WINDS UP TO A FRESH BREEZE. IT IS
CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN HOW FAR THIS WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO ICY STRAIT
AND CHATHAM STRAIT, WITH WINDS BEING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KNOTS AROUND SISTERS ISLAND, POINT COUVERDEN, AND POINT CRAVENS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ641-642-644.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-643-651-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...STJ/DS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...NC
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