887
FXAK67 PAJK 071338
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
538 AM AKDT TUE APR 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, DRIZZLE, AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE THEME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY.
- AREAS OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
TUESDAY, TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR OUR WEATHER: THE FIRST A TRANSITING HIGH, WITH THE AXIS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE. SECOND, A RAPIDLY
ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FOLLOW
THE GULF COAST, MAKING A BEELINE TOWARD THE ST. ELIAS RANGE. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE
AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO OVERCOME FORECAST CHALLENGES; PRIMARILY BEING
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES, BOTH PLAYING A ROLE RESULTING
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS AND WIND FOR OUR INNER CHANNELS. FOR A MORE
DETAILED WIND DISCUSSION, REFERENCE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
FURTHERMORE, AS IT COMES NATURALLY LIVING IN THE LARGEST TEMPERATE
RAINFOREST ON THE PLANET, WE CAN ANTICIPATE SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS FOR MANY LOCALES TUESDAY, BUT THERE IS
SOME SILVER- SALMON LINING… LIGHT RAIN AND NOT SNOW. A MORE
TYPICAL AND BEAUTIFUL SPRING DAY FOR SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HINTS OF SPRING WILL CONTINUE TO GRACE THE PANHANDLE OVER THE
COMING WEEK AS MULTIPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTERSPERSED WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. A SHORT WAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY WILL BE REINFORCED LATE
WEDNESDAY AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BE PRIMARILY RAIN, SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD NORTH OF ICY STRAIT. HOWEVER,
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AT SEA LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SOME MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE KLONDIKE AND HAINES HIGHWAYS. OVERALL THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL SURFACE REFLECTIONS AND THUS KEEP SEAS TO
AT OR BELOW 6 FT IN THE GULF BY THURSDAY. WINDS ALSO LOOK TO NOT
BE THAT IMPRESSIVE AS OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING STRONG BREEZE (22 TO 27 KT) AT
MOST. ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES IMPACTING
THE PANHANDLE WILL BE REPLACED BY OFFSHORE AND/OR PARALLEL FLOW BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF.
WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND, MODEST
SEA BREEZES WILL BE ON TAP FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE INNER
CHANNELS. SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST
FEATURE EXITS THE REGION, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD THEN BE OFFSET BY
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND OVERALL
RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. OVERALL
IT LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUIET AND BENIGN PATTERN AHEAD FOR
THE WEEKEND.
SOME ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND THE NBM HINT AT THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN LATE WEEKEND AND BRINGING A LOW OUT INTO THE GULF AND TRYING
TO SWING A FRONT WITH RAIN INTO THE PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW DUE TO HIGH
MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND CAPPED THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIP TO CHANCE.
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR MILDER, MORE SEASONABLE SPRING
TIME TEMPS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY/
THE AXIS OF A DIRTY RIDGE IS
POISED OVER THE EASTERN GULF, WHICH IS BRINGING IN BROKEN MARINE
LAYER LOW STRATUS, WHICH IS CAUSING A FEW AREAS' CIGS TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, BREAKING UP THE
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS. THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, A TROF WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE FROM THE WEST, BRINGING IN SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, & ONCE AGAIN, REDUCING CIGS, BRINGING
CONDITIONS BACK DOWN TO THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD
PRIMARILY STAY VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. AS FAR
AS SFC WINDS ARE CONCERNED, PAGY WILL BE BREEZY GUSTY THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD, WHILE PAHN WILL BECOME BREEZY THIS MORNING &
DIMINISH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING. LLWS VALUES REMAIN
RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): ALONG OUR COAST, SATELLITE
DERIVED WINDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HIGHLIGHT DECAYING NW WINDS OF
MODERATE BREEZES, A WELCOME RELIEF FROM EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS AND 15 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTH MONDAY. UPSTREAM, A LOW AND
OCCLUDING FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OBSERVED VIA 06Z
ASCAT PASSES. FOR OUR WATERS, THERE ARE SEVERAL WAVE SYSTEMS
PRESENT, THE DOMINANT BEING MODERATING SEAS FROM THE WEST, FOCUSED
7 TO 9 SECONDS WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT, WITH 12 FT
NEAR DIXON ENTRANCE AND WESTERN PRINCE OF WALES. FURTHERMORE, WE
DO HAVE TWO LONG PERIOD GROUND SWELL GROUPS BEING MASKED BY THE
DOMINANT SEAS: ONE WESTERLY GROUP ORIGINATING OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND A SOUTHERLY GROUP ORIGINATING IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
SEVERAL DAYS AGO, WITH RESPECTIVE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 1 TO 3 FT.
ANTICIPATE WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO RELAX
FIRST THING TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY GROUND SWELL BEGINNING
TO DOMINATE, DRIVING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT. ALONG
THE NORTHERN COAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME EASTERLY IN
RESPONSE AN APPROACHING OCCLUDING FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
NEAR MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES, WITH SEAS INCREASING BACK TO 8 FT.
FOR THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS SOUTH TO THE PRINCE OF WALES COAST,
ANTICIPATE WESTERLY WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TO
CONTINUE, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FOCUSED AROUND PROMINENT CAPES
(CAPE SPENCER, CAPE EDGECUMBE, CAPE OMMANEY, CAPE MUZON, TO NAME A
FEW). WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING
SOUTHERLY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
OVER OUR INSIDE WATERS, THE FEEL IS MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
DRIVEN BY ELEVATED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM THE GALE FORCE LOW
MONDAY (NOW PUSHING INTO CANADA). THE EXCEPTION IS LYNN CANAL,
WITH SOUTHERLY STRONG BREEZES. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE COAST, WITH A
MARINE LAYER FORMING IN MANY CHANNELS. THE PRIMARY THREAT TUESDAY
IS WINDS INCREASING AGAIN IN LYNN CANAL, WITH SOUTHERLY STRONG
BREEZES FORMING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST AND THE RESULTING THERMAL
GRADIENT. SOMETHING WE CONTINUE TO ASSESS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL TO NOT SUBSIDE A BIT THIS MORNING AS
FORECASTED, JUST MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGH
TUESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...STJ/DS
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...AP
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