994
FXAK67 PAJK 252319
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
319 PM AKDT SAT APR 25 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NOCTURNAL MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
-SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE AK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / LIGHT WIND SITUATION
(GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS) ACROSS THE PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUED THROUGH SUNDAY. CLOUD DECK THAT SPREAD IN FROM THE THE
GULF WITH THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS AT 4000 FEET OR LESS SPECIFICALLY
THROUGH CROSS SOUND, ICY STRAIT TO JUNEAU AND OVER CHICHAGOF
ISLAND. THE CLOUD DECK IS BREAKING UP SOME ALLOWING BREAKS TO FORM
AROUND GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU, HOWEVER, EXPECT IT CLOSE BACK UP THIS
EVENING, POSSIBLY CLEAR AGAIN SUNDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO DO
SO VERY MUCH. AT THE MID LEVELS AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THIS MAY START A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND,
AMOUNTS ARE ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. UNFORTUNATELY, YAKUTAT AND THE NE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM A CONTINUED MARINE LAYER. EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION
TOTALS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. STARTING MID WEEK, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DISRUPTS THE RIDGE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE, LOW RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. AREAS SOUTH OF YAKUTAT HAVE A 70 TO 80% CHANCE THAT
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES. EVEN YAKUTAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO ONLY SEE AROUND 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT, BEHIND THIS
WEAK SYSTEM A SHORT BREAK LOOKS TO RETURN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
WIND DURING THIS TIME REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THESE SEA BREEZES CAN SLIGHTLY
INCREASE WINDS BY ABOUT 5 KTS, BUT WILL MAINLY CREATE CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, THE STRONGEST MARINE WINDS REMAIN ALONG
CLARENCE STRAIT INTO DIXON ENTRANCE WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF
17 TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE. EVEN THESE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WITH DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED, NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
RETURNS, MAX TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SE AK. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION
THE MARINE LAYER THAT AFFECTED THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OR OTHERWISE LIFTED TO BE A CLOUD DECK AOA
3000 FT AS OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. YAKUTAT IS IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION, WHILE ALL OTHER SITES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE HAVE CLEARED
OUT WITH ONLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO ACCOUNT FOR. ONCE AGAIN,
THESE SEA BREEZES WILL DROP OFF CLOSE TO SUNSET. THIS WILL ALSO
HARKEN THE REFORMATION OF A MARINE LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO THE INNER CHANNELS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING BRINGING MORE MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHERN GULF, YAKUTAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE
A SHIFT TO SLIGHTLY ONSHORE FLOW LATER SATURDAY TONIGHT WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER ONSHORE THERE AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT
LLWS CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF, KEEPING COASTAL WINDS
RELATIVELY CALM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST
FROM CAPE DECISION THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE FAR NORTHERN
COAST TO THE WEST OF ICY BAY. A LOW MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN SITTING
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS
SEEING NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT
FLOW THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND DOWN HECATE STRAIT, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF IS
SEEING SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY
WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND TURNING WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BEGIN TO EXTEND NORTH
ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF COAST, WITH STRONG BREEZES FLOWING
INTO CROSS SOUND. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, INCREASING TO 7
TO 9 FT IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 6
TO 9 FT AT A PERIOD OF 10 TO 13 SECONDS WILL DECREASE TO 3 TO 4 FT
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLACES. THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST
AREAS BEING ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND, THE
SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS CHANNEL ENTRANCES, AND FLOWING
OUT OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WHEN THE SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS
PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, FRESH BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO
FLOW INTO CROSS SOUND AND DOWN ICY STRAIT. OVERNIGHT, A LOW
MARINE LAYER WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO CHANNEL ENTRANCES SUCH AS
CROSS SOUND AND DOWN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, REACHING FURTHER AND
FURTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE FORMING UNDER THE
LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF THE MARINE LAYER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-644-652-661-662.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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