868
FXAK67 PAJK 261841
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1041 AM AKDT SUN APR 26 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
-- BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NOCTURNAL MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE AK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, AS A MARINE
LAYER WHICH MOVED IN OVERNIGHT BEGINS TO PULL BACK THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING FRONT, TRYING TO PUSH OVER
THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED
ACROSS THE AREA, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH, WITH
SOME 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE JUNEAU PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SEA BREEZE DIFFERENT, WITH LOCATIONS
LIKE SKAGWAY, KETCHIKAN, AND JUNEAU SEEING BREEZIER CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRIER CONDITIONS REMAIN INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF. UNFORTUNATELY, YAKUTAT AND THE NE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN FROM A CONTINUED MARINE LAYER. EVEN THOUGH THEY
ARE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE LOW CLOUDS, PRECIPITATION
TOTALS REMAIN LOW THROUGH MID WEEK. STARTING MID WEEK, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DISRUPTS THE RIDGE BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
BACK TO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE, LOW RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. AREAS SOUTH OF YAKUTAT HAVE A 70 TO 80% CHANCE THAT
24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS REMAIN BELOW 0.25 INCHES. EVEN YAKUTAT IS MOST
LIKELY TO ONLY SEE AROUND 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 24 HOUR
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT, BEHIND THIS
WEAK SYSTEM A SHORT BREAK LOOKS TO RETURN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AGAIN.
WIND DURING THIS TIME REMAINS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING. THESE SEA BREEZES CAN SLIGHTLY
INCREASE WINDS BY ABOUT 5 KTS, BUT WILL MAINLY CREATE CHANGES IN
WIND DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, THE STRONGEST MARINE WINDS REMAIN ALONG
CLARENCE STRAIT INTO DIXON ENTRANCE WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF
17 TO 27 KTS POSSIBLE. EVEN THESE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WITH DRY AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED, NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK. EVEN AS CLOUD COVER
RETURNS, MAX TEMPERATURES MIGHT DROP BY A FEW DEGREES, BUT ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SE AK. HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND AREAS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THERE IS SOME
VERY LIGHT RAIN FROM PAYA TO PAGS THAT IS REDUCING SOME VIS AND
CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL
WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER ICY STRAIT AREA DOWN TO SITKA AND JUNEAU
AREAS. THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL REMAIN TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE RIDGE OFFSHORE IS
FROM THE WNW AND WILL ADVECT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING BUT BY MONDAY
MORNING THESE WILL LIFT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST.
AS FOR WINDS THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE MINOR SEA BREEZES WINDS
BY THE AFTERNOON WITH SKAGWAY EXPECTED TO SEE A BIT HIGHER GUSTS
TO 20KT, BUT THAT SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FOR MOST OTHER PLACES WINDS WILL LESS THAN 15KT.
MARINE...
VERY SIMILAR FORECAST TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A RIDGE REMAINS
STALLED OVER THE PANHANDLE, LEADING TO NW FLOW FOR MOST OF THE
OUTER COAST, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS FOR
THE SW GULF, DIXON ENTRANCE, IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE SPENCER.
INSIDE CHANNELS CONTINUE TO SEE SEA BREEZES THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND EVENING HOURS, WITH WINDS REACHING UP TO ~15 KT IN PLACES LIKE
TAIYA INLET, STEPHEN'S PASSAGE, AND CLARENCE STRAIT AT TIMES. A
WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY WILL BRING WITH IT A
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN.
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF, KEEPING COASTAL WINDS RELATIVELY
CALM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM CAPE
DECISION THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE FAR NORTHERN COAST TO THE
WEST OF ICY BAY. A LOW MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN SITTING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH
THE COASTAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS SEEING
NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT FLOW
THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND DOWN HECATE STRAIT, WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF WILL EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH STRONG BREEZES FLOWING INTO CROSS SOUND. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW SUIT, INCREASING TO 7 TO 9 FT IN THE AREAS OF
STRONGEST WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FT AT A PERIOD OF
10 TO 12 SECONDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLACES. THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES
PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND, THE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS CHANNEL
ENTRANCES, AND FLOWING OUT OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WHEN THE
SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, FRESH
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO CROSS SOUND AND DOWN ICY STRAIT.
OVERNIGHT, A LOW MARINE LAYER WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO CHANNEL
ENTRANCES SUCH AS CROSS SOUND AND DOWN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
REACHING FURTHER AND FURTHER INLAND EACH NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY BE
FORMING UNDER THE LOWER CLOUD DECKS OF THE MARINE LAYER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-661-662-664.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...EAB
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...GFS
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