548
FXAK67 PAJK 262333
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
333 PM AKDT SUN APR 26 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NOCTURNAL MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
- SPRINKLES AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE AK
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT / QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA, AS THE REMNANTS OF A DECAYING FRONT, TRYING TO
PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS REMAINED
ANCHORED ACROSS THE AREA, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REACH INTO THE 50S FOR
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH, WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS LIKE JUNEAU PROVIDED
SUFFICIENT CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SEA BREEZE DIFFERENT, WITH
LOCATIONS LIKE SKAGWAY, KETCHIKAN, AND JUNEAU SEEING BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
FROM THE GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A NEW LOW MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA TO START THE WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY BE THE IMPETUS
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE INTO
MIDWEEK. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BERING LOW WILL SERVE TO
INITIALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF TUESDAY, WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE NE COAST AND PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA COULD STILL
BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, BUT THE
MAIN STORY IS AN ELONGATED LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS FEATURE IS SET TO SPIN UP IN THE SPACE BETWEEN TWO SURFACE
HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, AND QUICKLY RACE
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. IN THE PROCESS, THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY BE SHUT OFF AS IT PASSES BEYOND 40
DEGREES N.
WHILE NO LONGER HAVING A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM, THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN RATES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND NORTHWARD TO
BARANOF ISLAND, THOUGH THIS COULD SHIFT BASED UPON THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE WOBBLING EAST OR WEST, AS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
REMAINS. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, AREAS FROM ICY STRAIT SOUTHWARD HAVE
A GREATER THAN 45% CHANCE OF SEEING 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN
0.25 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM. A
SMALLER AREA, FROM SOUTHERN BARANOF NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KAKE AND
PETERSBURG, HAVE APPROX A 50% CHANCE TO SEE 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS OF
0.75 INCHES OR MORE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN AT SEA LEVEL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATED WITH ANY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THAT
DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FROM THESE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
BE CHANGES IN DIRECTION FROM OVERNIGHT WINDS, THOUGH AREAS SUCH AS
TAIYA INLET COULD SEE MORE GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM, A RELATIVELY SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP TO FRESH BREEZE (17 TO 21 KT)
WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. A RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OR BREAK DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
ASIDE FROM IMPACTS FROM POTENTIAL LINGERING CLOUDS FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE TO START THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT HIT WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY, HOWEVER CLEARING ON THE BACKSIDE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE. THE
PANHANDLE FROM SUMNER STRAIT SOUTHWARD LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK TO
HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 60S FOR INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS TO PUSH SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN FROM PAYA TO PAGS THAT REDUCED SOME
VIS AND CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
AS A UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE SOME
FORCING. THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER
ICY STRAIT AREA DOWN TO SITKA AND JUNEAU AREAS AND START TO MOVES
SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SOUTHERN HALF ARE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THIS TIME BUT THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE
RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL ADVECT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE
CLOUDS LOWER TO BE MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE
COAST. BY MONDAY MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THREAT OF PRECIP BY
PAYA BY THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR WINDS THERE IS SOME ENHANCED WINDS NEAR PAGY TO 20 KT BUT
THOSE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHER WISE THERE
IS SOME MINOR SEA BREEZE WINDS TO AS STRONG AS 15KT NEAR PAKT FROM
THE NW.
MARINE
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS RIDGING
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF, KEEPING COASTAL WINDS RELATIVELY
CALM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM CAPE
DECISION THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND THE FAR NORTHERN COAST TO THE
WEST OF ICY BAY. ALSO INTO CROSS SOUND AREAS SUNDAY EVENING. THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS SEEING NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT FLOW THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND
DOWN HECATE STRAIT, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL EXTEND NORTH
ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
STRONG BREEZES FLOWING INTO CROSS SOUND. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL FOLLOW
SUIT, INCREASING TO 7 TO 9 FT IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FT AT A PERIOD OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLACES. THE
SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES
PERSIST WITH THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE
OF WALES ISLAND, THE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS CHANNEL
ENTRANCES, AND FLOWING OUT OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WHEN THE
SWATH OF STRONGER WINDS PUSHES NORTH ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, FRESH
BREEZES WILL BEGIN TO FLOW INTO CROSS SOUND AND DOWN ICY STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641-642-644-661-662-664-672.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...ABJ
MARINE...BEZENEK
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