043
FXAK67 PAJK 271854
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1054 AM AKDT MON APR 27 2026
UPDATE
TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS
IN THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE FROM HIGH END MVFR TO LOW END VFR WITH CIGS AT OR
ABOVE 3000 FT INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
GUSTAVUS OR YAKUTAT BREAKING OUT OF MVFR FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME DUE TO A CONTINUOUS, LIGHT WESTERLY MOIST FLOW THROUGH
TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY INTO TOMORROW
WITH SKIES ALMOST CLEAR EXCEPT FOR THE FEW HIGH CIRRUS. TONIGHT, A
WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND, AND WEAK
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE MORNING WITH A GENERAL SE
FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON IN
YAKUTAT, AROUND 00Z. FURTHER INLAND, WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER
THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS,AS DAYIMTE HEATING PROMOTES
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. NO LLWS CONCERNS, THOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT
TURBULENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SURFACE WINDS PICK UP IN THE
INNER CHANNELS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 633 AM AKDT
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NOCTURNAL MARINE LAYER DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT AND DIURNAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE AK SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA, AS THE
REMNANTS OF A DECAYING FRONT, TRYING TO PUSH OVER THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE AXIS WHICH HAS REMAINED ANCHORED ACROSS THE
AREA, CONTINUE TO BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORECAST CHANGES
ASIDE FROM INCREASING POP CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR. THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, POPS DIMINISH
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT DEPART THE AREA, BEFORE CHANCES
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
REACH INTO THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND INTO THE UPPER
40S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH, WITH SOME 50S POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS
LIKE JUNEAU PROVIDED SUFFICIENT CLEARING OF THE MARINE LAYER
OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SEA
BREEZE FOCUSED, WITH LOCATIONS LIKE SKAGWAY, KETCHIKAN, AND
JUNEAU SEEING BREEZIER CONDITIONS AT TIMES. A STRONGER FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN ENTIRELY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A NEW LOW MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA TO START THE WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY BE THE IMPETUS
FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE INTO
MIDWEEK. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BERING LOW WILL SERVE TO
INITIALLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF TUESDAY, WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE NE COAST AND PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA COULD STILL
BE DEALING WITH SOME LIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, BUT THE
MAIN STORY IS AN ELONGATED LOW MOVING UP FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
THIS FEATURE IS SET TO SPIN UP IN THE SPACE BETWEEN TWO SURFACE
HIGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC, AND QUICKLY RACE
NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY. IN THE PROCESS, THE MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL QUICKLY BE SHUT OFF AS IT PASSES BEYOND 40
DEGREES N.
WHILE NO LONGER HAVING A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE TO DRAW FROM, THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN RATES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER COAST
FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND NORTHWARD TO
BARANOF ISLAND, THOUGH THIS COULD SHIFT BASED UPON THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE WOBBLING EAST OR WEST, AS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
REMAINS. AS OF THIS DISCUSSION, AREAS FROM ICY STRAIT SOUTHWARD HAVE
A GREATER THAN 45% CHANCE OF SEEING 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS GREATER THAN
0.25 INCHES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM. A
SMALLER AREA, FROM SOUTHERN BARANOF NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KAKE AND
PETERSBURG, HAVE APPROX A 50% CHANCE TO SEE 24 HOUR RAIN TOTALS OF
0.75 INCHES OR MORE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH
SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS ALL RAIN AT SEA LEVEL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATED WITH ANY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES THAT
DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE FROM THESE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
BE CHANGES IN DIRECTION FROM OVERNIGHT WINDS, THOUGH AREAS SUCH AS
TAIYA INLET COULD SEE MORE GUSTY WINDS. WITH THE ELONGATED NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM, A RELATIVELY SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS
LIKELY OVER THE EASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONLY UP TO FRESH BREEZE (17 TO 21 KT)
WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. A RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FEATURE TO END THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TRIES TO ONCE AGAIN PUSH THROUGH FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS TO WHETHER THE RIDGE WILL HOLD STRONG OR BREAK DOWN
RELATIVELY QUICKLY.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY/...THE MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NORTHERN OUTER COAST & INTO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, KEEPING CIGS DOWN TO WITHIN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS
FAR AS LLWS VALUES ARE CONCERNED, THOSE REMAIN BENIGN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL ALSO GET A BIT BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH
FOR THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA, INCLUDING PAGY, FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FOR CLARENCE STRAIT, INCLUDING PAKT, SFC
WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FOR
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY, LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF,
KEEPING COASTAL WINDS RELATIVELY CALM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM CAPE DECISION THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE
AND THE FAR NORTHERN COAST TO THE WEST OF ICY BAY. THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF COAST IS SEEING NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 10 FT FLOW THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE AND DOWN
HECATE STRAIT, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. STRONGER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL LAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN 7 TO 9 FT IN THE EASTERN GULF,
WHILE INITIALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN GULF BEFORE RAPIDLY INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES ACROSS, ALSO BRINGING WITH IT SE WINDS OF STRONG BREEZE TO
NEAR GALE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. BY TUESDAY MORNING PREVAILING FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE OUT OF THE SE, THOUGH WINDS AND WAVES
SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 2 TO
4 FT AT A PERIOD OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): INNER CHANNEL WINDS REMAIN UNDER 15 KT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PLACES. THE SOUTHERN
INNER CHANNELS WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES PERSIST WITH
THE STRONGEST AREAS BEING ALONG THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES
ISLAND, THE SOUTHERN CHATHAM AND SUMNER STRAITS CHANNEL ENTRANCES,
AND FLOWING OUT OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT. WINDS VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES IN, BRINGING S FLOW UP TO
20 KT (FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE) FOR MANY OF THE NORTH/SOUTH
CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-652-661-663-664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...BAS
MARINE...GFS
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page