647
FXAK67 PAJK 272349
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
349 PM AKDT MON APR 27 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN CONDITIONS, CONTINUED OVERCAST IN THE NORTH WITH CLEARING
IN THE SOUTH. RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR YAKUTAT AND TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG, FILLING LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL
APPROACH THE NE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY. THIS OCCLUDED WARM FRONT DOES NOT HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
SYNOPTIC FORCING AS IT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEAK FORCING
COMBINED WITH HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS TO SHEAR APART THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. NOT SURPRISINGLY FROM THE PRIOR
STATEMENT, NOT EXPECTING STRONG QPF FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WITH THE JET LARGELY FOCUSED OVER THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE, EXPECTING
TO SEE STRONGER TROUGHING IN CANADA, ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
IN SKAGWAY, UP TO 35 MPH. IN OTHER WORDS, A NORMAL DAY IN SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES CROSS SOUND.
THE STORY FOR MIDWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN RATES RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
JUMP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING NORTH
INTO THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF BARANOF
ISLAND. LOCATIONS ON BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS, SPECIFICALLY
CLOSER TO THE OUTER COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ONCE THIS FRONT MAKES LANDFALL, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN COMMUNITIES SUCH AS PORT
ALEXANDER OR PELICAN. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM
NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FIRST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGER RATES EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW, THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY, SENDING A FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS FOR HOW FAR INLAND THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, DIRECTING FLOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
AND CONTINUING PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OUTER COAST SHOULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATION
THAN INLAND AREAS WITH THE EXTENDED FRONT AND LONGER DURATION OF
THIS EVENT, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE YAKUTAT AND
THE MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, POTENTIALLY SEEING AN
INCH OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER INCH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK, SO
PRECIPITATION NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE PERIODS OF
CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 60S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK WITH THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY /
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS TO PUSH SOME MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAS
BEEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN FROM PAYA TO PAGS THAT REDUCED SOME VIS
AND CIGS TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIMES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AS A
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING. THE
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER ICY STRAIT AREA
DOWN TO SITKA AND JUNEAU AREAS AND START TO MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.
THE SOUTHERN HALF ARE SEEING VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT THIS TIME BUT THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE RIDGE OFFSHORE
WILL ADVECT THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST PART THERE WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME AREAS THAT WILL SEE THE CLOUDS LOWER TO BE
MVFR THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE IFR ALONG THE COAST. BY MONDAY
MORNING THE CLOUDS WILL LIFT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH THREAT OF PRECIP BY PAYA BY THE
AFTERNOON.
AS FOR WINDS THERE IS SOME ENHANCED WINDS NEAR PAGY TO 20 KT BUT
THOSE WILL RELAX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHER WISE THERE
IS SOME MINOR SEA BREEZE WINDS TO AS STRONG AS 15KT NEAR PAKT FROM
THE NW.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: RELATIVELY BENIGN WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL TRANSITION TO FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS AN
INCOMING FRONT TRAVERSES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECTING TO SEE THIS
FRONT LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, PRIMARILY IMPACTING CAPE
EDGECOMBE NORTHWARD. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 9-11 FT, PROMPTING
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS, ALONG WITH
THE INCREASED WINDS. SEAS LOOK TO RELAX GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
JUST IN TIME FOR A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
FOR WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: AGAIN, BENIGN HIGH PRESSURE LEAVE MOST WINDS
PRIMARILY DICTATED BY DIURNAL, LOCAL INFLUENCES. ONCE AGAIN, TAIYA
INLET HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM DIURNAL INFLUENCES; WITH
TOMORROW EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS FROM A STRENGTHENING TROUGH IN THE
YUKON. CUT DOWN ON FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN HOW LAST NIGHT
PLAYED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT FOG WILL NOT
APPEAR. TUESDAY SEES THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE,
INCREASING CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL UP TO 20 KNOTS. LOOKING
TO SEE THIS FRONT SHEAR APART FROM THE MOUNTAINS, THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXTEND INTO STEPHENS
PASSAGE AS STRONG.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...NC
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