114
FXAK67 PAJK 280531 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
931 PM AKDT MON APR 27 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN CONDITIONS, CONTINUED OVERCAST IN THE NORTH WITH CLEARING
IN THE SOUTH. RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR YAKUTAT AND TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONT
ATTEMPTING TO PUSH OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY. A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG, FILLING LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA WILL
APPROACH THE NE GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREAD OVER THE PANHANDLE
TUESDAY. THIS OCCLUDED WARM FRONT DOES NOT HAVE SUBSTANTIAL
SYNOPTIC FORCING AS IT MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. WEAK FORCING
COMBINED WITH HIGH TERRAIN LOOKS TO SHEAR APART THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLE. NOT SURPRISINGLY FROM THE PRIOR
STATEMENT, NOT EXPECTING STRONG QPF FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WITH THE JET LARGELY FOCUSED OVER THE FAIRWEATHER RANGE, EXPECTING
TO SEE STRONGER TROUGHING IN CANADA, ALONG WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS
IN SKAGWAY, UP TO 35 MPH. IN OTHER WORDS, A NORMAL DAY IN SKAGWAY.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES CROSS SOUND.
THE STORY FOR MIDWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN RATES RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
JUMP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING NORTH
INTO THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF BARANOF
ISLAND. LOCATIONS ON BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS, SPECIFICALLY
CLOSER TO THE OUTER COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ONCE THIS FRONT MAKES LANDFALL, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN COMMUNITIES SUCH AS PORT
ALEXANDER OR PELICAN. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM
NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FIRST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGER RATES EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW, THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY, SENDING A FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS FOR HOW FAR INLAND THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, DIRECTING FLOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
AND CONTINUING PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OUTER COAST SHOULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATION
THAN INLAND AREAS WITH THE EXTENDED FRONT AND LONGER DURATION OF
THIS EVENT, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE YAKUTAT AND
THE MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, POTENTIALLY SEEING AN
INCH OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER INCH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK, SO
PRECIPITATION NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE PERIODS OF
CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 60S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK WITH THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT SHOWERS THAT SHOWED UP
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
MOST PART, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH MID TO LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS INLAND. FROM SITKA AND KAKE NORTHWARD, CIGS GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN 20000 AND 4500 FT AS A RESULT. THIS WILL HOLD TRUE
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT EVENTUALLY
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AOB 2000 FT FOR THE NE GULF COAST AS WELL
AS INTO CROSS SOUND AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, SOME SHEAR MAY
BE FOUND BRIEFLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST JUST AS THE FRONT
LIFTS INLAND SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND, EXPECTATION IS FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT THOUGH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
ONCE MORE.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING INLAND OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY, SOUTHERN
TAF SITES IN PARTICULAR WILL GENERALLY SEE CALMER WINDS UNTIL SEA
BREEZES PICK UP BY THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERN SITES WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET ANY SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE APPROACHING FRONT.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: RELATIVELY BENIGN WESTERLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WILL TRANSITION TO FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS AN
INCOMING FRONT TRAVERSES FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECTING TO SEE THIS
FRONT LOSE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD, PRIMARILY IMPACTING CAPE
EDGECOMBE NORTHWARD. SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 9-11 FT, PROMPTING
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS, ALONG WITH
THE INCREASED WINDS. SEAS LOOK TO RELAX GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
JUST IN TIME FOR A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH
FOR WEDNESDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: AGAIN, BENIGN HIGH PRESSURE LEAVE MOST WINDS
PRIMARILY DICTATED BY DIURNAL, LOCAL INFLUENCES. ONCE AGAIN, TAIYA
INLET HAS INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS FROM DIURNAL INFLUENCES; WITH
TOMORROW EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS FROM A STRENGTHENING TROUGH IN THE
YUKON. CUT DOWN ON FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT GIVEN HOW LAST NIGHT
PLAYED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW THAT FOG WILL NOT
APPEAR. TUESDAY SEES THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE,
INCREASING CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL UP TO 20 KNOTS. LOOKING
TO SEE THIS FRONT SHEAR APART FROM THE MOUNTAINS, THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXTEND INTO STEPHENS
PASSAGE AS STRONG.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...NC
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page