660
FXAK67 PAJK 281441
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
641 AM AKDT TUE APR 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
TUESDAY.
-A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RAIN.
SHORT TERM
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN THE WORKS ON TUESDAY, AS
CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA HAS BEGUN TO DECAY, ALLOWING THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT TO
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY, THIS WILL BRING
BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE BIGGER STORY IS THE
MORE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM ARRIVING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL SE AK. NOT TOO IMPRESSED BY THE DYNAMICS OF THIS
PARTICULAR SYSTEM, AND SO THINK THAT DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN SOME AREAS, THINK THAT OVERALL IMPACTS
WILL BE LIMITED. A LOW RACING OUT OF THE S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, WITH TOTALS OF ~1-1.5"
POSSIBLE. SOME RIVER RISES IN AREAS AFFECTED BY SNOW MELT ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND CREEKS AND STREAMS WITH SMALLER
AND MORE LOCALIZED BASINS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THE COASTLINE AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES CROSS SOUND.
THE STORY FOR MIDWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN RATES RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO
JUMP INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING NORTH
INTO THE PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
THAT THE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST, AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF BARANOF
ISLAND. LOCATIONS ON BARANOF AND CHICHAGOF ISLANDS, SPECIFICALLY
CLOSER TO THE OUTER COAST, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES ONCE THIS FRONT MAKES LANDFALL, WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN IN COMMUNITIES SUCH AS PORT
ALEXANDER OR PELICAN. THE REST OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FROM
NORTHERN PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND TO THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE FIRST BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE STRONGER RATES EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW, THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY, SENDING A FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE OUTER EDGE OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH
YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS FOR HOW FAR INLAND THIS WILL EXTEND INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A WEAK
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, DIRECTING FLOW INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
AND CONTINUING PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY ALONG THE
ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, MAY SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE OUTER COAST SHOULD SEE MORE ACCUMULATION
THAN INLAND AREAS WITH THE EXTENDED FRONT AND LONGER DURATION OF
THIS EVENT, BUT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE YAKUTAT AND
THE MORE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE GULF COAST, POTENTIALLY SEEING AN
INCH OF RAIN ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER INCH ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ARE NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEK, SO
PRECIPITATION NEAR SEA LEVEL WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH BOTH OF THESE
SYSTEMS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO SEE MORE PERIODS OF
CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 60S GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CONTINUE TO CHECK
BACK WITH THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION.../UNTIL 12Z WEDNESDAY/
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
PRIMARILY STAY WITHIN THE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH PERIODIC DIPS TO WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF PASI CAN EXPECT PRIMARILY CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN WITHIN THE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THIS REGION IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT'S
REALM OF APPRECIABLE INFLUENCE. A VERY LOCALIZED AREA OF LOW
MARINE-INFLUENCE STRATUS, CAUSING IFR CIGS, HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PAKW IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD THIN-OUT/LIFT LATER THIS MORNING. LLWS VALUES LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY BENIGN THROUGH THE 24-HOUR TAF PERIOD. SFC WINDS LOOK
TO BECOME RATHER BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION MAINLY BETWEEN AROUND MID- MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS FOR THE LYNN CANAL REGION, INCLUDING PAGY & PAHN. PAYA'S (NE
GULF COAST REGION) SFC WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MID-
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT WILL BE PAST THEM SOONER.
MARINE
OUTER WATERS: WINDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY TO
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES AS AN INCOMING FRONT TRAVERSES
FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECTING TO SEE THIS FRONT LOSE STRENGTH AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD, PRIMARILY IMPACTING CAPE EDGECOMBE NORTHWARD.
SEAS LOOK TO BUILD TO 9 TO 11 FT, PROMPTING WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES IN THE OUTER WATERS, ALONG WITH THE INCREASED WINDS.
SEAS LOOK TO RELAX GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE RAMPING BACK
UP ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTH. EXPECT SEAS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE W ON FRIDAY.
INSIDE WATERS: FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A NUMBER OF DAYS, THE PRIMARY
DRIVER OF WINDS IN THE INNER CHANNELS ISN'T SEA BREEZES. INSTEAD,
TUESDAY SEES THE WEAKENING FRONT MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE,
INCREASING CHATHAM STRAIT AND LYNN CANAL UP TO 20 KNOTS. LOOKING
TO SEE THIS FRONT SHEAR APART FROM THE MOUNTAINS, THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS EXTEND INTO STEPHENS
PASSAGE AS STRONG. WEDNESDAY HOWEVER WILL SEE STRONG BREEZES OF
AROUND 25 KT RACE UP MANY OF THE INNER CHANNELS FROM THE S AS A
STRONGER LOW MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
(THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY), WILL SEE WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH AGAIN AS A
RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...ZTK
AVIATION...JLC
MARINE...GFS
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