551
FXAK67 PAJK 291400
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
600 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH CLOUDS STEADILY CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/
A VERY NEAR GALE FORCE LOW WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TODAY, MAKING LANDFALL
BETWEEN MT. FAIRWEATHER & YAKUTAT TONIGHT. ALONG WITH IT, EXPECT
UP TO BETWEEN 25 & 35 KT WINDS FOR THE EASTERN GULF & UP TO AROUND
25 KT WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW MAKES ITS MARCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF FROM LATE MORNING TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALSO, EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS THIS LOW CARRIES WITH IT A DECENT
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OVER
THE CENTRAL & NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SOME OF OUR FLASHIER SMALL
STREAMS SUCH AS JORDAN CREEK MAY CREST JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE.
THEREFORE, NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NE
GULF COAST, ESPECIALLY YAKUTAT, THROUGH MID-MORNING DUE TO AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL, CALM WINDS, & BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD THIN-OUT BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING DUE
TO INSOLATION.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND,
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE PANHANDLE
FRIDAY NIGHT STARTING IN THE NORTH AND MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
DRIVE MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION CAUSING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE OUTER COAST AND AREAS NORTH AND NEAR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATED
NEAR YAKUTAT. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION RATES
ELEVATED AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO BE IN AGREEMENT, THERE IS CONFIDENCE ON QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD, NOTHING
UNREASONABLE TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
INCLUDING YAKUTAT COULD RECEIVE OVER 2.5 INCHES OR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESES WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER LOWER
LEVELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
A MIXED BAG OF FLYING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. AREAS ALONG THE COAST CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS AS LOW AS 500 FT AT TIMES, BUT MAINLY REMAINING AROUND 1500
TO 2500 FT. FARTHER INLAND / EAST, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REACH THE PANHANDLE LATER
THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AOB 2500 FT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ALONG WITH LOWERED CEILINGS, AREAS OF
MODERATE RAIN CAN REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BETWEEN 3 TO 5 SM.
PERIODS OF BOTH IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOWEST CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES. EXPECT SE WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY THURSDAY AS RAIN RATES AND WIND SPEEDS
DECREASE.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS & SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT
WITH SEAS OF UP TO AROUND 5 FT(HIGHER AROUND OCEAN ENTRANCES) OUT
OF A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS A VERY NEAR GALE FORCE
LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TODAY & TONIGHT,
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MT. FAIRWEATHER & YAKUTAT BAY
TONIGHT. AFTER THAT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS-IN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF & INNER CHANNELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING DECREASED WIND MAGNITUDES OF 10-15 KT OR LESS &
SEAS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 2-3 FT.
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): WINDS & SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 25-35 KT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRAVERSES
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA, MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT,
MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MT. FAIRWEATHER & YAKUTAT BAY
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD UP TO AROUND 10 TO 12
FT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT LOW AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT,
RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE EASTERN GULF & PANHANDLE, BRINGING
DIMINISHED WIND MAGNITUDES & LOWERED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT, A SOLIDLY GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST, BRINGING WINDS UP TO
BETWEEN 35 & 45 KT & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 14 & 19
FT FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING
ASSOCIATED WITH A BARRIER JET THAT LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE
SHORELINE TO ABOUT 40 NM OFFSHORE FROM AN AREA AROUND ICY BAY &
WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION
SHOULD BE UP TO AROUND BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 10
& 14 FT FOR THAT TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN, GIVING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS & MUCH LOWER SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-022-032-033-641>643-651-
652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...JLC
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