495
FXAK67 PAJK 291950
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1002 AM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO INCLUDE THE 18Z TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 334 PM TUE APR 28
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH CLOUDS STEADILY CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM...ON THIS FINE ALASKAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE WORLDS
LARGEST TEMPERATE RAIN FOREST, SEVERAL SYSTEMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS
THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR JET, WITH THE AXIS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS A WEAK
FRONT, WHICH WAS/IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. PEAK
WINDS WERE OVERNIGHT NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 60
KNOTS. AS THE FRONT MARCHES NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTING
WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY BUT BELOW 30 KNOTS BY AND LARGE, WITH
LIGHT RAIN.
MAIN THREAT REMAINS IN A DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 40N 150W, WHICH WILL
BE CARRIED NORTH BY AN ADDITIONAL LIFTING TROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO NEAR-GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF
THE COAST, WITH LOCALIZED GALES LIKELY NEAR THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAIN BACK TO THE
PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY. WE REMAIN CONSISTENT IN OUR MESSAGE OF 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AT SEA LEVEL FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING; HEAVIEST RAIN IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE. CERTAINLY, A WET AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY WINDS AND RAIN RELAX ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SYSTEM LIFTING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY,
DRIVING GALE FORCE EASTERLY WINDS ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE STORY FOR THIS WEEKEND,
FOLLOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE PANHANDLE
FRIDAY NIGHT STARTING IN THE NORTH AND MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
DRIVE MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION CAUSING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE OUTER COAST AND AREAS NORTH AND NEAR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATED
NEAR YAKUTAT. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION RATES
ELEVATED AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSES NORTHWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO BE IN AGREEMENT, THERE IS CONFIDENCE ON QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
ABOUT AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PERIOD, NOTHING
UNREASONABLE TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
INCLUDING YAKUTAT COULD RECEIVE OVER 2.5 INCHES OR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S, ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESES WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER LOWER
LEVELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA
PANHANDLE, AND BRINGING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE PERIODS OF IFR - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PAYA THIS EVENING THAT
WILL BRING THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
WHILE PAYA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME IFR TOMORROW AM, THEY SHOULD
OVERALL IMPROVE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISSIPATE.
MARINE...WIND SPEED DESCRIBED USING THE BEAUFORT WIND SCALE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SATELLITE AND ASCAT PASSES SHOW AN
OCCLUDING FRONT PUSHING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH WINDS
OF MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES. HIGHEST WINDS WERE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY, WITH ELXA2 REPORTING PEAK GUSTS OF VIOLENT STORM. TOUCHING
ON SEA STATE, A GENTLEMAN'S SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST, FORMED A FEW
DAYS AGO BY A HURRICANE FORCE LOW IN THE BERING, WAS BEING
REPORTED BY COASTAL BUOYS 46083 AND 46084. WSW 14 TO 16 SECONDS AT
4 TO 6 FT. ALONG WITH THIS WAVE GROUP SOUTHERLY FRESH SEAS WERE
PRESENT NEAR 8 TO 10 SECONDS. HIGHEST SEAS WERE NEAR 10 FT NEAR
CAPE ST. ELIAS. EXPECT SWELL AND SEAS TO TREND DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT.
AS A DEVELOPING LOW LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY, WESTERLY SWELL
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF OUR COAST, WITH DEVELOPING
FRESH SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 13 FT FROM CAPE
DECISION TO THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME
MORE WESTERLY THURSDAY, WITH A GALE FORCE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN COAST FRIDAY, HIGHEST WINDS NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WERE
WIDESPREAD. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE FOR CHATHAM AND LYNN, WITH
BUILDING SOUTHERLY WINDS OF MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES; HIGHEST
WINDS LIKELY NEAR ELDRED ROCK. WINDS DECREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT DON'T LET THIS LULL TRICK YOU, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES IMPACTING THE INNER CHANNELS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS
SMALL RECREATIONAL VESSELS OPERATING NEAR CROSS SOUND, SOUTHERN
CHATHAM OR SUMNER STRAIT, WHERE A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP INCREASE FRESH SEAS TO 5 TO 8 FT, WITH 10 FT SEAS LIKELY
NEAR CROSS SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-022-032-033-641>643-651-661>664-
671.
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...AP
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