859
FXAK67 PAJK 300436 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
323 PM AKDT WED APR 29 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT.
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.
- CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLEARING INCREASES.
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A FRONTAL BAND CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT HAS REACHED MOST
COMMUNITIES BESIDES KETCHIKAN AND METLAKATLA, AND WILL ENTIRELY
ENGULF THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS EXPECTED WITH THE PEAK
OF THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY YAKUTAT, SHOULD SEE
SKIES START TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION LINGERS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR PANHANDLE, CONTINUING LIGHT RAINFALL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
ONLY AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH EXPECTED THURSDAY. SKIES IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING CLOUDS BACK TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
MAIN AREA IMPACTED BY THIS UPCOMING FRONT WILL BE YAKUTAT AND THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, THOUGH THE REST OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE
HAS A CHANCE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MID RANGE FORECAST AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
DRIVE MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, CAUSING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE OUTER COAST AND AREAS NORTH AND NEAR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATED
NEAR YAKUTAT, RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PORT ALEXANDER TO KAKE TO
PETERSBURG, HOWEVER WITH TONGUE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWWARD
FROM N PAC, THINKING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 0.50 INCH
OR LESS, WITH NEGLIBLE TO TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE S PANHANDLE.
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSES NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST BEFORE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESES WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER LOWER LEVELS.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LOW IS BRINGING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF IFR - ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE. AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PAYA THIS EVENING,
THAT WILL BRING THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS AND HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. WHILE PAYA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME IFR TOMORROW AM, THEY
SHOULD OVERALL IMPROVE AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.
VFR DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE FROM SITKA SOUTHWARD. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS INTO TONIGHT
WITH CEILINGS BEING THE BIGGER CONCERN. ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES
COULD BE DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE STARTING TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT SOME
CLOUDS COULD STICK AROUND WITH LOWER CEILINGS.
MARINE
WIND SPEED DESCRIBED USING THE BEAUFORT WIND SCALE.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):
AS OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAKENING GALE FORCE LOW IS NEAR 55N
140W AND RAPIDLY SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD OUR COAST. ANTICIPATE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE MAJORITY OF OUR
COAST TUESDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY IMPACT CAPE EDGECUMBE
NORTH TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF, BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED, A GALE FORCE LOW
WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST, BRINGING EASTERLY
STRONG GALES TO CAPE ST. ELIAS AND SOUTHEASTERLY STRONG BREEZES TO
THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. FROM CROSS SOUND SOUTH TOWARD DIXON
EXPECTING SOUTHERLY MODERATE BREEZES.
TOUCHING ON SEA STATE, CURRENTLY OUR COASTAL NETWORK IS REPORTING
WESTERLY SWELL NEAR 13 TO 15 SECONDS AT 4 TO 6 FT, FROM A
HURRICANE FORCE LOW SEVERAL DAYS AGO. AS THE WEAKENING GALE FORCE
LOW LIFTS INTO THE GULF, WE ARE SEEING BUOY 84 STARTING TO REPORT
BUILDING FRESH SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS
FORECASTED TO REACH NEAR 10 TO 13 FT; HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE FROM
CAPE DECISION NORTH TOWARD THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS. SEAS AND WINDS
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY, WITH WESTERLY SWELL BEGINNING TO
DOMINATE THE WAVE SYSTEMS. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY
ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS.
INSIDE (INSIDE CHANNELS):
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE INSIDE CONTINUE TO REPORT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH SPEEDS REACHING PEAK INTENSITY
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE GENERAL FEEL OF SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE
FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KNOTS), WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING STRONG
BREEZES (AREAS LIKE TAIYA/ELDRED ROCK, NEAR PT. GARDNER, AND NEAR
GRAVE POINT IN STEPHENS). ONE UNKNOWN IS THE UPPER ARMS OF
GLACIER BAY WHICH COULD SEE SIMILAR WINDS AS NORTHERN LYNN CANAL;
CURRENT FORECAST HAS FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KNOTS). WINDS BEGIN
TO RELAX THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE GULF. EXPECT SEA BREEZES
LATER THURSDAY.
MARINERS OPERATING NEAR MAJOR OCEAN ENTRANCES LIKE CROSS SOUND,
CHATHAM, AND SUMNER SHOULD BE AWARE OF FRESH SEAS NEAR 8 TO 10 FT,
WITH 10 FT MORE LIKELY FOR CROSS SOUND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...NM/BAS
AVIATION...MUSALL/SF
MARINE...AP
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