752
FXAK67 PAJK 301409
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
609 AM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS & RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS
TO CLEAR OUT.
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST & PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- CLOUDS AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CLEARING INCREASES.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN
TODAY AS ITS PARENT SFC LOW CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CANADIAN YUKON & FALLING APART. THEREFORE, THE WIND & RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH TONIGHT. AS
OF THIS AFD WRITING, IT HAS ALREADY STOPPED RAINING IN YAKUTAT.
FOR FRIDAY, SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE GENERALLY DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT-IN BEHIND THE LOW &
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES, & THINGS TO DRY OUT A BIT.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG FORMATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANYWHERE THAT
EXPERIENCES ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER & LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS,
ALLOWING THEM TO COOL TO THEIR DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE. FRIDAY
NIGHT, A FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING
DECENT CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAINFALL & SOME ENHANCED WINDS FOR
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN DRY
UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A 35 TO 45 KT BARRIER JET FROM ABOUT
ICY BAY, WESTWARD, & FROM THE SHORELINE, OUT TO ABOUT 40 NM
OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO MID RANGE FORECAST AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WILL
DRIVE MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, CAUSING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION RATES TO THE OUTER COAST AND AREAS NORTH AND NEAR
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATED
NEAR YAKUTAT, RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PORT ALEXANDER TO KAKE TO
PETERSBURG, HOWEVER WITH TONGUE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD
FROM N PAC, THINKING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND 0.50 INCH
OR LESS, WITH NEGLIGIBLE TO TRACE AMOUNTS FOR THE S PANHANDLE.
DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSES NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST BEFORE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A TRANSITION TO A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESES WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER LOWER LEVELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF SE
AK THIS MORNING. WITH THIS, CEILINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN MVFR
TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN AOA 5 SM THIS MORNING,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE AREAS OF 3 TO 4 SM VISIBILITY. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND RAIN WILL END. IMPROVEMENT WILL FIRST
BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AS
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CLEARING SKIES
WILL BE THE INCREASED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE STRONGER WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS, THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SIMILARLY MOST OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO SEE WINDS DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING CALM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): BEFORE THE FRONT FINISHES PUSHING
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING, AREAS IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS & 4 TO 5 FT
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS. GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OF
BUILDS-IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF & INNER CHANNELS STARTING TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT WEEK, DIMINISHING WIND MAGNITUDES
TO AROUND BETWEEN 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVEN LESS IN SOME
LOCATIONS STARTING TONIGHT & SEAS TO AROUND 2-3 FT.
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): RIDGING BUILDS IN
TO THE EASTERN GULF & PANHANDLE, BRINGING DIMINISHED WIND
MAGNITUDES & LOWERED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT, A SOLIDLY GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST, BRINGING WINDS UP TO BETWEEN 35 & 45
KT & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 14 & 19 FT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A
BARRIER JET THAT LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE SHORELINE TO ABOUT 40 NM
OFFSHORE FROM AN AREA AROUND ICY BAY & WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 10 & 14 FT FOR THAT
TIMEFRAME. AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS DOMINANCE,
GIVING MUCH LIGHTER WINDS & MUCH LOWER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-032-033-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...NM/BAS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...JLC
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