836
FXAK67 PAJK 301843
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1043 AM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
AVIATION UPDATE
A FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE TODAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA GENERALLY MVFR
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR. IFR MAY PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST
AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MVFR BY EVENING. GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND
RECENT RAIN, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO
NOT CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING, THEN FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
MARINE UPDATE
WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND THROUGH CROSS
SOUND HAVE STAYED ELEVATED FOR LONGER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED,
SEEING SUSTAINED FRESH BREEZES (17 TO 21 KTS) WITH STRONG GUSTS
(22 TO 27 KTS) THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHER UNSHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
THE N/S FACING CHANNELS, SUCH AS SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT AND
PARTS OF NORTHERN STEPHENS PASSAGE, ARE ALSO SEEING THESE ELEVATED
WINDS THIS MORNING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE
SWATH OF STRONGEST WINDS, CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
SPUTHERN PANHANDLE, AND THEREFORE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
LARGELY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS & RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS
TO CLEAR OUT.
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST.
- CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLEARING
INCREASES.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WHILE CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN TODAY AS ITS PARENT SFC LOW CONTINUES PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN YUKON & FALLING APART. THEREFORE, THE WIND &
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DIMINISHING TREND THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS OF THIS AFD WRITING, IT HAS ALREADY STOPPED RAINING IN
YAKUTAT. FOR FRIDAY, THE SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HAVE BUILT-IN BEHIND THE LOW &
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, COME WARMER TEMPERATURES, & THINGS TO DRY OUT A BIT. THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG FORMATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANYWHERE THAT EXPERIENCES
ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER & LIGHT ENOUGH WIND, ALLOWING
THEM TO COOL TO THEIR DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE. FRIDAY NIGHT, A FRONT
WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, BRINGING DECENT CHANCES FOR
SOME RAINFALL & SOME ENHANCED WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A 35 TO 45
KT BARRIER JET FROM ABOUT ICY BAY, WESTWARD, & FROM THE SHORELINE,
OUT TO ABOUT 40 NM OFFSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO
MID RANGE FORECAST AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW WILL DRIVE MID TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, CAUSING MODERATE PRECIPITATION RATES TO
THE OUTER COAST AND AREAS NORTH AND NEAR THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL CONCENTRATED NEAR YAKUTAT, RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHEST FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PORT ALEXANDER TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG, HOWEVER WITH TONGUE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM N PAC, THINKING AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIMITED TO AROUND 0.50 INCH OR LESS, WITH NEGLIGIBLE TO TRACE
AMOUNTS FOR THE S PANHANDLE. DYNAMIC FORCING WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET TRAVERSES
NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST BEFORE EXITING THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM, A TRANSITION
TO A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT DEVELOPS. THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S, ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THESES
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER
LOWER LEVELS.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF SE
AK THIS MORNING. WITH THIS, CEILINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN BETWEEN MVFR
TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS.
VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN AOA 5 SM THIS MORNING,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE TO SEE AREAS OF 3 TO 4 SM VISIBILITY. AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND, CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND RAIN WILL END. IMPROVEMENT WILL FIRST
BE SEEN ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AS
HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD, SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CLEARING SKIES
WILL BE THE INCREASED CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS OF THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL WINDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CURRENTLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PANHANDLE. SKAGWAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE STRONGER WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS, THROUGH THIS
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SIMILARLY MOST OTHER AREAS WILL ALSO SEE WINDS DIMINISH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING CALM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OF BUILDS-
IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF & INNER CHANNELS STARTING TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT WEEK, DIMINISHING WIND MAGNITUDES TO
BETWEEN 10-15 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVEN LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS
STARTING TONIGHT & SEAS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 2-3 FT.
OUTSIDE (EASTERN GULF & OUTER COASTAL WATERS): RIDGING BUILDS IN
TO THE EASTERN GULF & PANHANDLE, BRINGING DIMINISHED WIND
MAGNITUDES & LOWERED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AFTER THAT, A SOLIDLY GALE-FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF FROM THE WEST, BRINGING WINDS UP TO BETWEEN 35 & 45
KT & SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF BETWEEN 14 & 19 FT FOR FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A
BARRIER JET THAT LOOKS TO SETUP FROM THE SHORELINE TO ABOUT 40 NM
OFFSHORE FROM AN AREA AROUND ICY BAY & WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION SHOULD GET UP TO AROUND BETWEEN
25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS OF BETWEEN 10 & 14 FT FOR THAT TIMEFRAME.
AFTER THAT, HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS DOMINANCE, GIVING MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS & MUCH LOWER SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-032-033-641>644-651-652-
661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...NM/BAS
AVIATION...EAB/MUSALL
MARINE...JLC/ZTK
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