768
FXAK67 PAJK 010623
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1023 PM AKDT THU APR 30 2026
UPDATE
TO THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS & RAINFALL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT.
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST & PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- CLOUDS AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CLEARING INCREASES.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
A WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LIGHT RAIN WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE IN THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF,
TURNING OFFSHORE UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
A STRONG FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
OF THE PANHANDLE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OVER
THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES
TO SEE DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY
AND CLEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED
TO SEE PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN RATES OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND PERSISTING WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE YAKUTAT
AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST, WHICH WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT A LIGHT TO
MODERATE RATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SEE THE LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE INCOMING SYSTEM.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY, DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO HIGH 50S ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. DUE TO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE STAYING CLEAR OVER
THE WEEKEND, THOSE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH
DAY UNTIL THE MID 60S BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING. DAYTIME SEA BREEZES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ON CLEAR DAYS, BRINGING LIGHT GUSTY WINDS TO COASTAL
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVER THE WEEKEND TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE
DYNAMICS FOR OUR WEATHER: THE FIRST BEING A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO BLOCK SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE SECOND, A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE BERING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, STEERING THE STORM
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF. STARTING OUT SATURDAY MORNING,
EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW EJECTS ASHORE; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE
PERPENDICULAR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH, THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS KEYING
ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND LONGER DURATION OF
SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION RETURNS AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
LARGELY HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS THE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO CLEAR UP BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE CONTINUED MVFR CONDITIONS
LASTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT.
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY FOR PETERSBURG, WRANGELL,
AND KLAWOCK BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS. CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STILL LOOKING TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS THE COASTLINE AND
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY TAKE UNTIL LATER FRIDAY MORNING / AFTERNOON
TO HAVE FULLY CLEARED SKIES. LOWERED VIS TO 2-4SM AND SOME LOW
CLOUDS BELOW 1000 FT ARE POSSIBLE FOR OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR,
AS FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.
THOUGH A LINGERING OVERCAST LAYER OVERNIGHT MAY KEEP AREAS FROM
SEEING FOG FORMATION AS EXPECTED.
MORE WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN LIGHT AND CALM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SKAGWAY AND
HAINES EXPECTING SOME ELEVATED WINDS STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER
THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT, TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AND FOLLOWING
ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SWATH OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR
GALE FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. A BARRIER JET WILL
SET UP ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, TURNING WINDS EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING TO HIGH END GALE FORCE FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER AND
WEST, WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS FROM ICY BAY TO CAPE ST. ELIAS. 4 TO
5 FT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT TO 8 TO 14 FT, WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FAR NORTHERN GULF
WILL SEE 15 TO 20 FT SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
ARE DIMINISHING AND TURNING NORTHERLY AS AN AREA OF RIDGING MOVES
INTO THE PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE AREA OF
RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, TURNING WINDS IN
A MAJORITY OF THE CHANNELS BACK TO SOUTHERLY WHILE KEEPING
CLARENCE STRAIT NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST INTO SATURDAY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME MUCH STRONGER THAN THE OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE DUE TO THE
NORTHERN POSITION OF THE LOW. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AROUND 1 TO 2 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ053-642>644-662>664.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AP/BAS
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...ZTK
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