399
FXAK67 PAJK 011344
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
544 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST & PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, CLOUDS AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CLEARING INCREASES.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT / SOME BREAKS FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE, ALLOWING PATCHY MORNING
FOG TO DEVELOP AND THIS OCCASIONALLY DROPS BELOW 1 MILE.
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE GOOD
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT HAVE THE FIRST IMPULSE OF MOISTURE TO MOVE
ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND POCKET OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STEERING ALL THE MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BUT KEEP IT FROM
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. BETTER WEATHER OVERALL, LIMITED
OR NO RAINFALL AND FEWER CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THAT AREA OF FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE THE 60S.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVER THE WEEKEND TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE
DYNAMICS FOR OUR WEATHER: THE FIRST BEING A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO BLOCK SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE SECOND, A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE BERING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, STEERING THE STORM
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF. STARTING OUT SATURDAY MORNING,
EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW EJECTS ASHORE; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE
PERPENDICULAR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH, THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS KEYING
ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE EARLY
TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING NUMBERS INTO THE
HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND LONGER DURATION OF
SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION RETURNS AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES VARY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO AREAS OF IFR AND
LIFR DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS QUICKLY FORMED OVER
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AFTER THE RAIN ENDED. BECAUSE OF
THIS, VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 2 TO 4 SM WITH AREAS AS LOW AS
1/2 SM. SIMILARLY CEILINGS DROPPED TO BELOW 1000 FT WITH AREAS AS
LOW AS 300 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SUN COMES UP. THEN THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE
DECREASING CLOUD CLOVER WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKIES REMAINING
OVER THE PANHANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO FIRST REACH YAKUTAT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING AND THEN THE NORTH TO CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY
TONIGHT. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE WORST FLYING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
AROUND THE YAKUTAT AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE CHANCE FOR FOG TO RETURN
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE
OVER YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY. FOR THESE AREAS, WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MOST
LIKELY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE THE REST OF SE AK
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BELOW 10
KTS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: THE NEXT FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SWATH OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. A BARRIER JET WILL SET UP
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, TURNING WINDS EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING TO HIGH END GALE FORCE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
4 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT TO 8 TO 14 FT, WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF WILL SEE 15 TO 20 FT SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
INSIDE: FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE INNER
CHANNELS IS SOME WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THAT IS
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO UNDER 3 MILES, AND IN SOME CASES UNDER
1 MILE. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG CONDITION IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, HOWEVER, COULD SEE THIS RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE DIMINISHING
AND TURNING NORTHERLY AS AN AREA OF RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE AREA OF RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, TURNING WINDS IN A MAJORITY
OF THE CHANNELS BACK TO SOUTHERLY WHILE KEEPING CLARENCE STRAIT
NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EAST INTO SATURDAY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE DUE TO THE NORTHERN
POSITION OF THE LOW. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO
2 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-642>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP/BAS
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page