680
FXAK67 PAJK 011855
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1055 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MID MORNING UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THIS MORNING, MINOR TWEAKS
TO INCREASE WINDS NEAR HAINES AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR AND
NORTHWARD REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SOUTH OF ICY
STRAIT, EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING INTO THE
60S. SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF
THE PANHANDLE, HOWEVER AN INCOMING FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF
WILL BRING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
A RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STALLED OUT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL
SCATTER OUT BRIEFLY TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS UP TO
25KTS AT HAINES AND SKAGWAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING WITH CIGS AOA 5000FT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, ONGOING MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH
CIGS AOB 2500FT WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL ARRIVE THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS, WITH MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIALLY SOME IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
ANTICIPATING WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE TAF SITES
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS YAKUTAT, HAINES, AND SKAGWAY.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 544 AM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY
IMPACTING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST & PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, CLOUDS AND PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN LINGER FOR THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CLEARING INCREASES.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT /
SOME BREAKS FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE,
ALLOWING PATCHY MORNING FOG TO DEVELOP AND THIS OCCASIONALLY DROPS
BELOW 1 MILE. CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN
PANHANDLE GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, BUT HAVE THE FIRST IMPULSE OF
MOISTURE TO MOVE ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A SECOND POCKET
OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN IS STEERING ALL THE MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BUT KEEP IT FROM
IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. BETTER WEATHER OVERALL, LIMITED
OR NO RAINFALL AND FEWER CLOUDS SO TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN
WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THAT AREA OF FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE THE 60S.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OVER THE WEEKEND TWO SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE
DYNAMICS FOR OUR WEATHER: THE FIRST BEING A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN SEABOARD HELPING TO BLOCK SYSTEMS
FROM MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE. THE SECOND, A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE BERING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, STEERING THE STORM
TRACK INTO THE WESTERN GULF. STARTING OUT SATURDAY MORNING,
EASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW EJECTS ASHORE; HOWEVER, WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE
PERPENDICULAR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH, THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS
KEYING ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING
NUMBERS INTO THE HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND
LONGER DURATION OF SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION
RETURNS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: THE NEXT FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING A SWATH OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALE
FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH THE GULF. A BARRIER JET WILL SET UP
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, TURNING WINDS EASTERLY AND
STRENGTHENING TO HIGH END GALE FORCE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
4 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT TO 8 TO 14 FT, WITH
THE HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE FAR NORTHERN
GULF WILL SEE 15 TO 20 FT SEAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS.
INSIDE: FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE INNER
CHANNELS IS SOME WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG THAT IS
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY TO UNDER 3 MILES, AND IN SOME CASES UNDER
1 MILE. SHOULD SEE THIS FOG CONDITION IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, HOWEVER, COULD SEE THIS RETURN FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION
AGAIN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES ARE DIMINISHING
AND TURNING NORTHERLY AS AN AREA OF RIDGING MOVES INTO THE
PANHANDLE. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH THE AREA OF RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, TURNING WINDS IN A MAJORITY
OF THE CHANNELS BACK TO SOUTHERLY WHILE KEEPING CLARENCE STRAIT
NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES EAST INTO SATURDAY, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH
STRONGER THAN THE OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE DUE TO THE NORTHERN
POSITION OF THE LOW. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO
2 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-642>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...BEZENEK
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