427
FXAK67 PAJK 020639
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1039 PM AKDT FRI MAY 1 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOLLOWING 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRIMARILY
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK
-WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF DRIER
WEATHER IN BETWEEN
-DRIER WEATHER GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, WE ARE GEARING UP FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP FOR YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND LYNN CANAL. THE EXIT
REGION FOR AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL JET IS AIMED AT THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND WILL DEVELOP INTO A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START IN
YAKUTAT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
BRIEF BREAKS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND TRAILING OFF OVER NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE AN 80% CONFIDENCE FOR 0.75-1.5 IN
OF PRECIPITATION IN THE YAKUTAT REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF FREDERICK
SOUND FOR THE WHOLE PERIOD AND CHICHAGOF ISLAND TOMORROW.
LOW LEVEL TROUGHING IN CANADA WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
TIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL
AND SKAGWAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL BUILD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS REACHING 45MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL OFF THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN
10MPH THROUGH THE BACK END OF THE WEEKEND.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WINDS IN DIXON
ENTRANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20MPH AND THIS BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CHANNELING WINDS IN SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GULF INTO
THE WESTERN SEABOARD WHICH CONTINUES TO BLOCK SYSTEMS FROM MOVING
DIRECTLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN
GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE PERPENDICULAR SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH,
THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS
MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS
KEYING ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING
NUMBERS INTO THE HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND
LONGER DURATION OF SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION
MAY RETURN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE FROM VFR TO MVFR / IFR. THE BIGGEST AREA OF
CONCERN FOR THIS FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE NE GULF COASTLINE, WITH
YAKUTAT EXPECTING TO STAY BETWEEN 800 TO 1500 FT CIGS AND 2-4SM VIS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL CHANCES FOR THE IFR
CONDITIONS TO DROP TO LIFR IN THE EARLY MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS
CORRESPONDING WITH THE FRONT, DOWN TO 300 FT, THOUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT WILL PREDOMINANTLY STAY IFR.
THE OUTER COASTLINE FROM YAKUTAT DOWN TO SITKA INTO ICY STRAIT
CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES, ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR MVFR VIS AND CIGS AOB 2000 FT. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN AREAS NEAR NORTHERN LYNN CANAL TO SEE DROPS EVEN TO MVFR CIGS AND
VIS DUE TO THE WINDS INCREASING TONIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR SKAGWAY WITH SOUTHERLY 25 KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT KEEPING THE VIS AND CIGS FROM DROPPING AS LOW AND
POSSIBLY KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR FOR LONGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
FAR SE PANHANDLE, INCLUDING KETCHIKAN, IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS CIGS REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY AOA 5000 FT.
THE ONLY LLWS CONCERN REMAINS FOR THE NE GULF COASTLINE NEAR YAKUTAT
AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH SE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT AT 2000 FT
FROM 08Z-13Z TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE OF SE-LY
SURFACE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT, BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS FOR AREAS
NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KT, BEFORE DROPPING
AGAIN TO LARGELY CALM CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
EVERYWHERE BUT THE FAR NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):THIS BEAUTIFUL ALASKA FRIDAY,
SATELLITE DERIVED WIND PASSES SHOW TWO REGIMES ACROSS THE GULF AND
OUR COAST: THE FIRST BEING NORTHWESTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES ALONG MUCH OF SITKA/POW COAST, IN THANKS TO TRANSITING
SURFACE HIGH. THE SECOND IS STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF FROM A GALE FORCE LOW SLIDING NORTH, BRINGING
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS. SEA STATE IS CURRENTLY BEING
DOMINATED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL, 10 TO 11 SECONDS NEAR 4 FT,
WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS OF 5 FT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHERN
COAST WHERE WE ARE SEEING BUILDING EASTERLY SEAS FROM INCREASING
WINDS.
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST. ANTICIPATE GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR-GALES
TO STRONG BREEZES FROM YAKUTAT TO THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS, AND
SOUTHERLY FRESH BREEZES TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM CAPE EDGECUMBE
SOUTH TO DIXON.
TOUCHING ON SEA STATE, A VARIETY OF WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN COAST
FIRST, BUILDING SEAS FROM THE SOUTH, WITH DOMINANT PERIOD LESS
THAN 10 SECONDS; HOWEVER, WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT,
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
NEAR 7 TO 9 FT. FOR BARANOF AND POW COAST, EXPECT THE PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM TO BE THE PROMINENT WESTERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE COAST, LIKELY NEAR 8 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE INSIDE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE
NORTH, BRINGING SOUTHERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES TO MUCH OF
GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL. FOR FOLKS PLANNING ON OPERATING IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF GLACIER BAY, CAUTION ADVISED, ESPECIALLY NEAR
REID INLET AND OTHER AREAS EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE SEEING WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL, AND PERHAPS GLACIER BAY, WHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF FRESH TO PERHAPS STRONG
BREEZES ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES IMPACTING FAR SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM AKDT SATURDAY FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...AGP
LONG TERM...AP/BAS
AVIATION...CONTINO
MARINE...AP
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