252
FXAK67 PAJK 021351
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
551 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY
-WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF DRIER
WEATHER IN BETWEEN
-DRIER WEATHER GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
/ THROUGH MONDAY / ENERGY FROM THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN FALLING OVER
MOST THE THAT REGION, REACHING SOUTH FOR FREDERICK SOUND,
POSSIBLY A TOUCH FURTHER. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
HALF INCH. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH AN
OTHER POCKET OF MOISTURE AND RAINS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE QUITE LIKELY TO STAY ON DRY SIDE, WITH CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEN ENDING AND STAYING DRY
HEADED INTO SUNDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY/WINDY ALONG LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
SKAGWAY INTO THE LOW 40 MPH, AND OCCASIONALLY IN THE HAINES
REGION UP TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY - WRITTEN FRIDAY /
OVER
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE
DRIVING THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT
OVER THE GULF INTO THE WESTERN SEABOARD WHICH CONTINUES TO BLOCK
SYSTEMS FROM MOVING DIRECTLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED IN GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE
PERPENDICULAR SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH, THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS
KEYING ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING
NUMBERS INTO THE HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND
LONGER DURATION OF SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION
MAY RETURN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING AS A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
YAKUTAT THAT CONTINUES TO SEE IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS, WITH OVERCAST SKIES, WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THIS EVENING, HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE TO ONCE
AGAIN BRING DRIER WEATHER, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. EVEN AS
THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA, BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE BECOMING PREDOMINATELY VFR BY SUNDAY MORNING. YAKUTAT IS AN
EXCEPTION TO THIS AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
ONCE AGAIN BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH CEILINGS
BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500 FT SUNDAY MORNING. YAKUTAT COULD SEE A SHORT
BREAK THIS EVENING BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN WIND CONCERN REMAINS OVER SKAGWAY, HAINES, AND YAKUTAT.
OVERNIGHT SKAGWAY HAS SEEN CONSISTENT WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS.
THESE STRONG GUSTS ARE VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY. YAKUTAT AND HAINES HAVE
ALSO SEEN GUSTY CONDITIONS OF 25 TO 30 KTS AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND. THESE GUSTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST. ANTICIPATE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, SOUTHEASTERLY
NEAR-GALES TO STRONG BREEZES FROM YAKUTAT TO THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS, AND SOUTHERLY FRESH BREEZES TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM CAPE
EDGECUMBE SOUTH TO DIXON.
TOUCHING ON SEA STATE, A VARIETY OF WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN COAST
FIRST, BUILDING SEAS FROM THE SOUTH, WITH DOMINANT PERIOD LESS
THAN 10 SECONDS; HOWEVER, WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT,
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
NEAR 7 TO 9 FT. FOR BARANOF AND POW COAST, EXPECT THE PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM TO BE THE PROMINENT WESTERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE COAST, LIKELY NEAR 8 FT.
INSIDE: PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE INSIDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH, BRINGING SOUTHERLY FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES TO MUCH OF GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL. FOR FOLKS
PLANNING ON OPERATING IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF GLACIER BAY,
CAUTION ADVISED, ESPECIALLY NEAR REID INLET AND OTHER AREAS
EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE SEEING WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL, AND PERHAPS GLACIER BAY, WHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF FRESH TO PERHAPS STRONG
BREEZES ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES IMPACTING FAR SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ651-652-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-661>664.
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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