294
FXAK67 PAJK 021933
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1133 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
MID MORNING AND AVIATION UPDATE
FRONT MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NEERLY THAN ANTICIPATED,
WITH GULF WATER MARINE WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE NE GULF COAST AND
SHIFTING TO SWERLY. AS A RESULT OF MOST OF THE ENERGY
TRANSITIONING TO MOVING MORE NORTHEAST, THE EASTERLY COMPONENT HAS
SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A DELAY FOR WHEN THE
SWERLIES WILL HIT CROSS SOUND AND WESTERN ICY STRAIT. THEREFORE, PULLED
BACK ON THE TRANSITION TO SWERLY FRESH BREEZES UNTIL THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
PREDOMINATE MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH POCKETS OF IFR ONGOING
ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS
AOB 2500 FT AND VISBYS 1 TO 5 SM IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
FRONT. SITKA REMAINS A TROUBLE SPOT WITH ASOS REPORTING AROUND
2SM VISBYS, BUT PIREP REPORTS INDICATE VISBYS AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE
WITHIN SITKA SOUND. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ONGOING, CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING IS THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 22 TO 00Z BEFORE A WIND
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR A BIT MORE CLEARING TO IMPROVE
TOWARDS MVFR, HOWEVER LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON IMPROVMENTS PAST
MVFR. YAKUTAT MAINTAINING STATUS QUO OF LIFR, BUT EXPECTING A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY MVFR BY 22Z. MOVING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ANTICIPATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
SKIES TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR TO MVFR CONTINUING
ALONG THE NE GULF TERMINALS, IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
WITH CIGS AOB 5000FT FOR THE INNER CHANNEL TERMINALS.
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN AT HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40KTS REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST
HOUR. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WINDS
REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE GOING NEAR
CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 551 AM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
-ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY
-WAVES OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NE GULF COAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF DRIER
WEATHER IN BETWEEN
-DRIER WEATHER GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM.../ THROUGH MONDAY / ENERGY FROM THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN FALLING OVER
MOST THE THAT REGION, REACHING SOUTH FOR FREDERICK SOUND,
POSSIBLY A TOUCH FURTHER. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
HALF INCH. EXPECT RAINS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH AN
OTHER POCKET OF MOISTURE AND RAINS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE PANHANDLE QUITE LIKELY TO STAY ON DRY SIDE, WITH CHANCE OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AND THEN ENDING AND STAYING DRY
HEADED INTO SUNDAY.
LOCALLY BREEZY/WINDY ALONG LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS IN
SKAGWAY INTO THE LOW 40 MPH, AND OCCASIONALLY IN THE HAINES
REGION UP TO 35 MPH.
LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A A PROMINENT RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE GULF INTO
THE WESTERN SEABOARD WHICH CONTINUES TO BLOCK SYSTEMS FROM MOVING
DIRECTLY INTO THE PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN
GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL GIVEN THE PERPENDICULAR SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHILE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IMPACT THE NORTH,
THE PANHANDLE SHOULD START DRYING OUT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW STEERS
MOISTURE WEST OF OUR REGION INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ONE NOTE IS THAT YAKUTAT WILL REMAIN UNDER WET CONDITIONS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE
KENAI, STEERING MOISTURE AND ELEVATED SEAS INTO THE NORTHERN
COAST. SOME RAIN WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL UNDER 1 TO 2
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD, WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DRIVING MORE TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER WEATHER
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN REGIONS.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND INTO
THE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THE NBM IS
KEYING ON SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH AREAS ON PRINCE OF WALES SEEING
NUMBERS INTO THE HIGH 60S GIVEN A PROPER CLEARING OF SKIES AND
LONGER DURATION OF SOLAR HEATING UNDER THE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION
MAY RETURN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE NEAR GALE FORCE ALONG CAPE ST. ELIAS, WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE REST OF OUR COAST. ANTICIPATE GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS TO REMAIN NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS, SOUTHEASTERLY
NEAR-GALES TO STRONG BREEZES FROM YAKUTAT TO THE FAIRWEATHER
GROUNDS, AND SOUTHERLY FRESH BREEZES TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM CAPE
EDGECUMBE SOUTH TO DIXON.
TOUCHING ON SEA STATE, A VARIETY OF WAVE SYSTEMS WILL BE PRESENT
IN THE GULF FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOOKING AT THE NORTHERN COAST
FIRST, BUILDING SEAS FROM THE SOUTH, WITH DOMINANT PERIOD LESS
THAN 10 SECONDS; HOWEVER, WESTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO BE PRESENT,
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
NEAR 7 TO 9 FT. FOR BARANOF AND POW COAST, EXPECT THE PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM TO BE THE PROMINENT WESTERLY SWELL MENTIONED ABOVE. MOVING
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE COAST, LIKELY NEAR 8 FT.
INSIDE: PRIMARY THREAT ACROSS THE INSIDE SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH, BRINGING SOUTHERLY FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES TO MUCH OF GLACIER BAY AND LYNN CANAL. FOR FOLKS
PLANNING ON OPERATING IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF GLACIER BAY,
CAUTION ADVISED, ESPECIALLY NEAR REID INLET AND OTHER AREAS
EXPOSED TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MOST OF THE INNER
CHANNELS WILL BE SEEING WINDS OF GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN CANAL, AND PERHAPS GLACIER BAY, WHERE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF FRESH TO PERHAPS STRONG
BREEZES ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZES. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE NORTHERLY WINDS, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH BREEZES IMPACTING FAR SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM AKDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
UPDATE...NC
SHORT TERM...BEZENEK
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...AP
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