897
FXAK67 PAJK 030629
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1029 PM AKDT SAT MAY 2 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
AVIATION
TONIGHT, A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL IMPACT THE REGION. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES, IT WILL
BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS TO AREAS PAJN NORTHWARD. AS THE SYSTEM ARRIVES, IT
WILL BRING RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. THE CURRENT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO IFR, AND POTENTIALLY LIFR. WITH THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY 18-21Z SUNDAY,
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT OUR AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
411 PM AKDT MAY 2 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO YAKUTAT.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUPS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
- CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH SOME AREAS ENTERING
THE TOP TEN DAILY HIGH FOR EARLY MAY ACROSS S PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM...
A COUPLE IMPORTANT FEATURES DRIVE OUR MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INCLUDING THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT IN SUNDAY, A
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE NE GULF COAST WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. A DEEPENING
TROUGH UPSTREAM LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN OUR RIDGE ALOFT, PUTTING A
MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLE INTO HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY, WITH
CLEARING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NATURALLY, THIS LOOKS TO REDUCE MUCH
OF THE PANHANDLES POPS TO 0, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF YAKUTAT. OVER
IN SOUTH BRITISH COLUMBIA, CLEARING AND PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO
CAUSE A STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
ENHANCING NW WINDS IN KETCHIKAN UP TO POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH.
THEN, WITH WARM AIR ALREADY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUN, ITS POSSIBLE THAT KETCHIKAN,
METLAKATLA, AND POW ISLAND COULD GET INTO THE LOW 70S. FOR
KETCHIKAN SPECIFICALLY, THIS WOULD PUT THEM IN THE NUMBER 2 SPOT
FOR RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 4TH, TRAILING BEHIND THE 1915 RECORD OF
81 DEGREES.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SLOW PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, AS A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN (BY SPRING STANDARDS) INCREASINGLY TAKES HOLD.
THE RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SHIELDING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE BULK OF THE PRECIP BEGINS TO SUBSIDE AND MOVE
BACK SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY, AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SLOWLY MEANDERS EAST AND THE PANHANDLE IS
INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY IMPULSES MOVING UP ALONG ITS ITS
EASTERN FLANK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND WEAK AREAS OF
RIDGING WILL CONSEQUENTLY RACE UP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK,
PARADING THROUGH SE AK. AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, EXPECT PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO PUSH THROUGH AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL TOTALS
FROM THESE WAVES, BUT ALONGSIDE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN, DO EXPECT
THEM TO KEEP BRING MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK ACROSS ALL
AREAS OF SE AK, AS OPPOSED TO BEING LARGELY FOCUSED ON THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS HAD BEEN THE CASE PREVIOUSLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE OF A MIXED BAG. WHILE TUESDAY WILL
FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE (WHERE LOW TO MID 60S REMAIN VERY MUCH POSSIBLE), THE
SUBSIDENCE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CONCURRENT RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER WILL SEE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
AVERAGES BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY GROWING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER AND
MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AND ARRIVE BETWEEN
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BROADLY COME INTO
AGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL, THOUGH THE ACTUAL MAGNITUDE AND INTENSITY OF THESE
ELEMENTS STILL REMAINS A FORECAST CHALLENGE.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
GENERAL MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AOB 2500 FT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE N
PACIFIC TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. WITH SATURATED LOW LEVELS IN
COMBINATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, ANTICIPATING MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BEST ESTIMATE BETWEEN 8Z TO 14Z.
MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MIXING ALLOW FOR IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE VFR 21Z TO 00Z.
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN AT HAINES AND SKAGWAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE, WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE GOING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VISBYS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE WATERS:
AN INCOMING FRONT INTO THE NE GULF COAST WILL INCREASE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 25-30 KNOTS BETWEEN CAPE SUCKLING AND ICY
CAPE WITH WAVE HEIGHTS 9-13 FT FOLLOWED BY 15-20 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AND DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COAST LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN
NORTHWESTERLIES OFF THE COAST OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND AND DIXON
ENTRANCE TO 15-20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN CROSS SOUND, ICY STRAIT, AND CHATHAM
STRAIT LOOKS TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE LOOKING TO DROP TO CALM CONDITIONS BY 10 PM
TONIGHT. LOOKING TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE, AND UP TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE
FOR CLARENCE STRAIT DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWESTERLIES.
LYNN CANAL AND TAIYA INLET GETS SPECIAL MENTION FOR ITS CONTINUED
FRESH BREEZES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LEE TROUGHING IN THIS CHANNEL
FOR LONGER. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR THIS OUTCOME, BUT FROM
PATTERN RECOGNITION, WENT A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC BY KEEPING
STRONGER WINDS IN FOR LONGER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...NC
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