442
FXAK67 PAJK 040011
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
411 PM AKDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO YAKUTAT BEFORE DIMINISHING
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUPS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
- CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE NE
GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN TO YAKUTAT THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT
OF THE AREA. ACCORDING TO YAKUTAT ASOS, THEY'VE PICKED UP AROUND A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY SO FAR, WHICH FITS THE CURRENT
FORECAST TOTAL OF AROUND HALF AN INCH EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ACROSS THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE, SKIES ARE GRADUALLY
CLEARING FROM S TO N, WITH CLEAR SKIES ONGOING OVER PRINCE OF
WALES, KETCHIKAN, AND ANNETTE, BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH TODAYS
THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU. AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S ACROSS THE N PANHANDLE, INCREASING TO THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND S PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH KETCHIKAN, ANNETTE, AND PRINCE OF WHALES ISLAND REACHING
INTO THE LOW 70S. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS UNDER CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AS RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WENT WITH A PERSISTENCE BASED FOG FORECAST SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, WITH HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR
PETERSBURG, SUMNER STRAIT, FREDERICK SOUND, AND FJORDS OF CLARENCE
STRAIT. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING AS DAY TIME HEATING KICKS OFF.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED SOUTH AND EASTWARD AFTER
TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES PRESSING EASTWARD.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG ITS EASTERN
SIDE, ONE OF WHICH ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
NORTHWARD TO APPROACH KENAI PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
LINGER IN THE NW GULF, BRINGING MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH MOST OF THESE WAVES
IMPACTING THE NE GULF COASTLINE. LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST
FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTHWARD WITH THESE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION AS
THIS LOW LINGERS INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY RAINFALL
EXPECTING TO BE MORE SHOWERY AND REMAINING LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE SOUTH KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES NORTHWARD TO BRIEFLY SIT OVER THE PANHANDLE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AFTER IT MOVES
THROUGH. A STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SW AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLE, PUSHING UP INTO
THE GULF BY FRIDAY. THIS NEXT, STRONGER, SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM, AND WHILE
THE ENSEMBLES ARE LARGELY STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH, THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME ARE STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IF THIS RIDGING PREVENTS THE SYSTEM FROM
STRENGTHENING AND BEING AS IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION.../THROUGH 0Z TUESDAY/
LOCATIONS HAVE BEGAN TO CLEAR
TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SEES HIGH SCATTERED
CIGS, WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF STILL HAS OVC CLOUDS DECKS AOA
3,500-5,000FT. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THESE CONDITIONS ARE PAGS,
EXPECTED TO STAY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY, AND PAYA, LOCKED IN WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z.
FOG CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT PAYA, PAGS, PAPG, AND PAWG, WITH
THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF FOG AT PAWG. AS WE
GO INTO THE TONIGHT PERIOD, SEA BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO DRAINAGE
FLOWS. LLWS IS NOT A THREAT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS KEEPING CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
THE CENTER OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE.
NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS FROM CAPE DECISION
DOWN THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
SLIGHTLY DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES INCREASE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BRING THEM
BACK UP. A SWATH OF SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES IN THE
CENTRAL GULF WILL STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY AND STEADILY DECREASING. AS
THE SWATH OF WINDS PUSH EASTWARD, 6 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH
THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT TUESDAY BEFORE
DECREASING ALONG WITH THE WINDS. 4 TO 5 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT AT 10 TO 14 SECONDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH BREEZES
THROUGH NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND INTO TAIYA INLET WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZES THROUGH TUESDAY AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES THROUGH
CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH
A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. 2 TO 3 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST
IN THE CHANNELS EXPERIENCING THE WIND, WITH CHANNEL ENTRANCES
SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-642-651-652-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...NM
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...ZTK
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