182
FXAK67 PAJK 041450 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
650 AM AKDT MON MAY 4 2026
UPDATE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE, AND HAS MANAGED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SOME OF THE INNER
CHANNELS IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME
HEATING TAKES EFFECT AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE NE GULF COAST BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TO YAKUTAT BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES DECREASE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETUPS UP ACROSS THE AREA.
- CLEARING SKIES AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR -AT LEAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE- HAS ARRIVED TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF
SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WHICH DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES PLUNGED DOWN TOWARDS THE DEWPOINT, DAYTIME HEATING WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES SURGING BACK UP WITH UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SE AK WILL SEE LESS IMPRESSIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S
AS MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER REDUCES THE IMPACT OF DIURNAL HEATING. BOTH
THE WARM WEATHER AND THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARE BEING DRIVEN BY
THE NORTHERN AXIS OF A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WHICH IS SITUATED DIRECTLY
OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS RIDGE IS DIRECTING STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG WITH SOME LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT STABILITY ALOFT IS BEING MAINTAINED TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS ON MONDAY, THE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL STILL PROVE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE E MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE
MORE STEERING PATTERN CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLE. CHANCES OF RAIN
RETURN TO YAKUTAT ALONGSIDE MORE CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL BE
FOCUSED LARGELY AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE BEFORE
MIGRATING SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY CHANCES OF SOME OCCASIONAL RAIN
SHOWERS WILL START TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST AND THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MORE IN LINE WITH SEASONAL AVERAGES, FEATURING UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AND LOW 50S FOR AREAS
FURTHER NORTH.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET PUSHED SOUTH AND EASTWARD AFTER
TUESDAY, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES PRESSING EASTWARD.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALONG ITS EASTERN
SIDE, ONE OF WHICH ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
NORTHWARD TO APPROACH KENAI PENINSULA BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL
LINGER IN THE NW GULF, BRINGING MULTIPLE WEAK WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO THE PANHANDLE WITH MOST OF THESE WAVES
IMPACTING THE NE GULF COASTLINE. LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST
FURTHER INLAND AND SOUTHWARD WITH THESE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION AS
THIS LOW LINGERS INTO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH ANY RAINFALL
EXPECTING TO BE MORE SHOWERY AND REMAINING LIGHT. THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLE WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY DUE TO THE SURFACE
HIGH TO THE SOUTH KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSES NORTHWARD TO BRIEFLY SIT OVER THE PANHANDLE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AFTER IT MOVES
THROUGH. A STACKED LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO THE SW AS THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLE, PUSHING UP INTO
THE GULF BY FRIDAY. THIS NEXT, STRONGER, SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIMING HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A BIT FOR THIS SYSTEM, AND WHILE
THE ENSEMBLES ARE LARGELY STILL IN AGREEMENT IN STRENGTH, THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND INTENSITY AT THIS TIME ARE STILL TOO
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IF THIS RIDGING PREVENTS THE SYSTEM FROM
STRENGTHENING AND BEING AS IMPACTFUL.
AVIATION
/ THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT / THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE
BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING IS AN AREA OF IFR AND LIFR FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND OR PATCHY FOG. AS THE SUN RISES AND THERE IS DAYTIME HEATING,
THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND LEAD TO IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEA BREEZES INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS KEEPING CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE
CENTER OF THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE.
NORTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS FROM CAPE DECISION
DOWN THROUGH DIXON ENTRANCE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK,
SLIGHTLY DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES REPLACE THEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF AS THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A SWATH OF SOUTHEASTERLY FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
STEADILY DECREASING. AS THE SWATH OF WINDS PUSH EASTWARD, 6 TO 8 FT
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT
TUESDAY BEFORE DECREASING ALONG WITH THE WINDS. 4 TO 5 FT
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT AT 10 TO 14 SECONDS
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES
BACK ON A DOWNWARD TREND BEFORE THEY SURGE BACK UPWARDS FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF COAST WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS FOR
MONDAY AS DRAINAGE FLOW FROM THE VALLEYS AND FJORDS OVERNIGHT,
ALONGSIDE SEA BREEZE IMPACTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY DRIVER OF WINDS. ON TUESDAY, WINDS IN LYNN CANAL INCREASE TO
STRONG BREEZES AND STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY
FRESH BREEZES THROUGH CLARENCE STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL
ENTRANCES WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE PICKING BACK
UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF. 2 TO 3 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST IN THE CHANNELS EXPERIENCING THE WIND, WITH
CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE PEAK WIND
SPEEDS. WINDS WILL LIKELY SURGE UPWARDS FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS A
FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SWEEPS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING FOR AKZ317-320-
321-324-325.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...CONTINO
AVIATION...BEZENEK
MARINE...ZTK
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