195
FXAK67 PAJK 051814 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1014 AM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
- A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, BRINGING LIGHT
RAINFALL TO YAKUTAT AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES, WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM...COOLER WEATHER AND SOME CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ON THEIR WAY
TO SE AK AS THE BALMY, SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS MANY EXPERIENCED
YESTERDAY RECEDES. A RIDGE PREVIOUSLY ANCHORED OVER THE E GULF HAS
MEANDERED FURTHER EAST, AND STARTED TO WEAKEN. THIS IS ALLOWING
SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND AN OCCLUDED LOW IN KODIAK TO
BEGUN PUSHING CLOSER AND CLOSER TO SE AK. ALREADY, LIGHT RAIN HAS
STARTED IN YAKUTAT AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, AND CHANCES OF RAIN
WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LARGELY ESCAPE THE BULK OF THE
RAIN, AS THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL STILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, ALTHOUGH EVEN THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
A FEW SHOWERS FROM WORKING THEIR WAY INTO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
FEW DAYS (THE RAIN BEING MAINLY LIGHT AND OCCASIONAL IN NATURE), THE
RESULTANT CLOUD COVER WILL RESTRICT TEMPERATURES, LEADING TO MORE
SEASONAL 50S TO LOW 60 DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA, WITH
THE WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHERN SE
AK.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE WILL PUSH THE PRECIPITATION OUT
BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
WHOLE PANHANDLE. THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE OF RAIN NORTH OF ICY
STRAIT, WITH 30-40% CHANCE BETWEEN ICY STRAIT AND FREDERICK SOUND
ON WEDNESDAY, RETREATING NORTHWARD AS THE MOMENTARY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE WHOLE PANHANDLE AS THE FRONTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THERE ARE NO FLOOD IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.
WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND LYNN CANAL ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUST POTENTIAL UP TO 35 MPH. WINDS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE ARE FORESEEN TO BECOME VERY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD UNTIL THE VERY END AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF. LIGHT WINDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG DUE TO SKY COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WINDS IN
DIXON ENTRANCE WILL PICK UP BEFORE THEY HIT THE OUTER COAST,
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 MPH SUSTAINED. THE WINDS HAVE POTENTIAL
TO CHANNEL UP CLARENCE STRAIT AND IMPACT KETCHIKAN.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR VIS AND CEILINGS TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS (DOWN TO 1500 FT) ALONG THE OUTER COAST FROM SITKA
NORTHWARD FROM A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING FOR MOST AREAS (EXCEPT FOR YAKUTAT WHICH MAY SEE MORE
PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY AND CEILINGS STAYING NEAR 1500 TO 2000 FT OR
LOWER). INTO TONIGHT, MORE AREAS IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE WILL
LIKELY SEE CEILINGS DIPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN INCREASE. SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR, BUT EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER. GUSTY S WINDS TO 30
KT IN LYNN CANAL THIS MORNING AT SEA LEVEL AND THAT IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD TO SKAGWAY AND SOMEWHAT TO THE HAINES AREA AFTER MIDDAY.
GUSTS AT SEA LEVEL COULD REACH 40 KT AT SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
AND EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SEAS ARE PICKING UP THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST, AND LOOK TO
STAY ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BEGIN TO STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AS THE SWATH OF WINDS PUSH EASTWARD, 5 TO 6 FT WAVE HEIGHTS
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 12 FT TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING ALONG WITH THE WINDS. THE CENTRAL GULF MAY
SEE UP TO 15 FT WAVES INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 4 FT SOUTHWESTERLY
SWELL WILL INCREASE TO 8 TO 10 FT AT 11 TO 15 SECONDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL SEE WINDS AND WAVES BACK ON A
DOWNWARD TREND BEFORE THEY SURGE BACK UPWARDS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, REACHING 9-12 FT, AS A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF MOVES EAST AND CONCURRENTLY WEAKENS, WINDS WILL BE SET
TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS IN LYNN
CANAL IN PARTICULAR WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZES AND STAY
ELEVATED THROUGH MID-WEEK. NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES IN CLARENCE STRAIT
AND THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL ENTRANCES LOOK TO PICK UP THROUGH TUESDAY,
WHILE 15 -20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS STEPHEN'S
PASSAGE. 2 TO 3 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST IN THE CHANNELS
EXPERIENCING THE WIND, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS, AND
CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE PEAK WIND
SPEEDS. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH BACK DOWN TO LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
ON WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS BARRING LYNN CANAL AND PARTS OF ICY
STRAIT AND CROSS SOUND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE UPWARDS FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SWEEPS INTO THE
PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ318.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS/ZTK
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