062
FXAK67 PAJK 060602 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1002 PM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2026
UPDATE
WE HAVE EXPIRED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SKAGWAY THIS
EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE TAIYA INLET, WE DON'T EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH INCREASING CLOUDCOVER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, ADDITIONAL
WIND ENHANCEMENT IN THAT AREA IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
05/GARMON
AVIATION UPDATE
MOST OF THE LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS WILL
STAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND OUTER COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
MORNING. WE EXPECT MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR AT YAKUTAT AND SITKA
TO PERSIST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PERIODIC LIGHT RAINS AND ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF COASTAL AREAS OF
THE PANHANDLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE IFR CONDITIONS AT
YAKUTAT AND SITKA WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PREVALENT FROM 06/10Z
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING A BIT TO MVFR. TO THE EAST
AND FARTHER SOUTH, CONDITIONS ARE A BIT BETTER AND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN TOWARD MORNING FOR JUNEAU (MVFR)...AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH FOR PETERSBURG, WRANGELL,
KETCHIKAN AND KLAWOCK. KLAWOCK WILL PROBABLY SEE LOWER CLOUDS AT
MVFR MOST OF THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD. 05/GARMON
MARINE UPDATE
WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
EASTERN GULF OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS BEING OBSERVED...MOSTLY A SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
SWELL WITH 12 SECOND PERIODS. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT
TO AROUND 20 KTS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT AND
CAPE DECISION, BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS ARE TRACKING WELL FOR THE
LATE EVENING UPDATES. 05/GARMON
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM AKDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, BRINGING LIGHT
RAINFALL TO YAKUTAT AND INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
- DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES, WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM...RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY, SHIFTING MORE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THIS IS ALLOWING BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING AROUND
AN OCCLUDED LOW IN KODIAK TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST OF
SE AK. LIGHT RAIN HAS REACHED YAKUTAT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD INLAND,
GIVING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE OUTER GULF COAST A
CHANCE TO SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
ANY RAINFALL THAT MAKES IT INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SHOULD
TAPER OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE REST OF THE BAND OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST PULLING BACK THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE, THOUGH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
MAY TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN CLEARING OUT AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY,
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL START TO MOVE CLOUD COVER BACK IN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLIGHTLY DECREASING INTO WEDNESDAY, STAYING
RELATIVELY ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE HIGH 40S FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND REACHING THE MID 50S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
WITH SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CLEARING OUT THURSDAY, HIGHS
SHOULD REACH BACK UP INTO THE HIGH 50S TO LOW 60S. LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DROP INTO THE HIGH 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE AND THE LOW 40S FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. SEA BREEZES
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DAY FOR
MANY COASTAL COMMUNITIES, BUT WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES,
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THIS WEEKEND BRINGS RAIN
FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN OVER POW ISLAND AND MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WILL HAVE RAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE SO THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME ONCE THE
PRECIPITATION BEGINS.
WINDS IN DIXON ENTRANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 25MPH
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CHANNEL UP CLARENCE
STRAIT AND DIE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE INNER CHANNELS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR VIS AND CEILINGS TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS (DOWN TO 2000 FT) ALONG THE ENTIRE OUTER COAST FROM
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE INNER
CHANNELS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE OUTER COAST. LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, MORE AREAS IN THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS
DIPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY AS CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN INCREASE.
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE (EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN SIDE OF
PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND) SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR, BUT EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. GUSTY S WINDS TO 35 KT AT SEA LEVEL HAS
DEVELOPED AROUND N LYNN CANAL, HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS AT SEA LEVEL COULD STILL REACH 40 KT AT SKAGWAY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WINDS START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY
REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS
THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH AND STEADILY
DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 10 TO 12 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE FOLLOWING THE WINDS, REACHING A MORE UNIFORM 7
TO 8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 7 TO 8 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT A 10 TO 12
SECOND PERIOD WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 2 FT AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS SURGES NORTHWARD WITH WAVES REACHING 9-12 FT FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS HAVE INCREASED THROUGH TUESDAY, STAYING
ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WILL BE THE STRONGEST,
REACHING SUSTAINED STRONG BREEZES AND POTENTIALLY SEEING GALE
FORCE GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING DOWN TO AROUND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT.
THESE WINDS, ALONG WITH PARTS OF CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT NEAR
POINT COUVERDEN, WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DECREASING THURSDAY AND TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH. 2 TO 3 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST IN THE CHANNELS EXPERIENCING THE STRONGER
WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS AND CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 6 FT WITH THE
PEAK WIND SPEEDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND SWEEPS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...ZTK
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