234
FXAK67 PAJK 061912 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1112 AM AKDT WED MAY 6 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SYNOPSIS...
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN FOR AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES, WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. WHILE GENERALLY DRIER
WEATHER CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE,
CHANCES OF RAIN HAVE RETURNED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
THE OUTER GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE OVER SE AK HAS WEAKENED,
ENABLING IMPULSES TO BEGIN MOVING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS, BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURE SWILL REMAIN MORE SEASONAL GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER,
WITH UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF SE AK WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH. SEA BREEZES ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS FURTHER SOUTH LIKE KETCHIKAN. PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO
THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN WINDS FOR KETCHIKAN AND
FOR LYNN CANAL FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS
ON THE HORIZON FRIDAY, AS A MUCH STRONGER LOW PUSHES INTO THE GULF
AND BREAKS APART THE RIDGE, HERALDING THE RETURN TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND WIND FOR SE AK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, SEE THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS WEEKEND BRINGS RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE GULF. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER POW ISLAND AND MAKE
ITS WAY NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WILL HAVE RAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE SO
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO STAY RELATIVELY THE SAME ONCE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS.
WINDS IN DIXON ENTRANCE ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 25MPH
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND CHANNEL UP CLARENCE STRAIT
AND DIE OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT WINDS
WILL PICK UP IN THE INNER CHANNELS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS (DOWN
TO 1300 FT) AND VIS (DOWN TO 5 MILES) THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE
LOWER CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE OUTER COAST AND INTO THE ICY
STRAIT AREA. LOOKING AT IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF CROSS SOUND AS SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS MORE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE GULF MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE.
THE NE GULF COAST BY CONTRAST WILL LIKELY STAY MORE MVFR (OR
POSSIBLY LOWER) THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH ONSHORE FLOW
BRINGING AREAS OF LOW MARINE LAYER CLOUDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
GULF. OVERALL CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER AS
A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY EXPECTED. WINDS ARE GUSTY (GUSTS TO 35 KT) AROUND N LYNN
CANAL, HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS MORNING AND THAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE STARTING
TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER AREAS ARE MAINLY LOW WINDS WITH
15 KT OR LESS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON DURATION OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS S PANHANDLE
- HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE: OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH
TO STRONG BREEZES IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH
AND STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 10 TO 12 FT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE FOLLOWING THE WINDS, REACHING A MORE
UNIFORM 7 TO 8 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUALLY 4 TO 5
FT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 7 TO 8 FT SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT A
10 TO 12 SECOND PERIOD WILL STEADILY DECREASE TO 2 FT AT 8 TO 10
SECONDS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE ON THE
DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SWATH OF NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS SURGES NORTHWARD WITH WAVES REACHING 9-12 FT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.
INSIDE: WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ALONG WITH PARTS OF CROSS SOUND AND
ICY STRAIT NEAR POINT COUVERDEN, WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DECREASING THURSDAY AND TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH.
2 TO 3 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST IN THE CHANNELS EXPERIENCING
THE STRONGER WINDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING
3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 7 FT
WITH THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE
SOUTH AND SWEEPS INTO THE PANHANDLE.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-641>644-651-652-661>664-671.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...EAL
MARINE...GFS
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