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FXAK67 PAJK 070609 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1009 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2026
UPDATE
ISSUED FOR THE EVENING MARINE AND AVIATION UPDATES IN
THE NEAR TERM, AND TO DISCUSS POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS OVER THE
MARINE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION UPDATE
MAIN AREA OF IFR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULFAK COAST NEAR YAKUTAT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CLOSER TO WHERE A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATION, AND WHERE
MARINE LAYER AND PATCHY RAINS WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF THE
NORTHERN GULF AND ACROSS YAKUTAT THROUGH DAYBREAK. WE WILL START
TO SEE A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS AT YAKUTAT BY LATE MORNING.
LOOKING A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, WE GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO
VFR WITH A CHANCE OF IFR FOR SITKA THROUGH DAYBREAK WHERE LOW
CLOUDS MAY MOVE IN PERIODICALLY OFF THE EASTERN GULFAK. AGAIN,
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING AS CLOUDS START TO
BREAK. LOOKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/3RD OF THE AK PANHANDLE,
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING WITH SOME MVFR FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AT KLAWOCK WHERE SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE HANGING
IN. 05/GARMON
MARINE UPDATE
WE EXPIRED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN
LYNN CANAL (MAINLY TAIYA INLET) AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A BIT.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DAY TO GET OUT AND ABOUT ON THE
WATER WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERALL EXPECTED (EXCEPT WHERE WE CAN
SEE A MODERATE SEABREEZE OVER FAR NORTHERN LYNN AND TAIYA INLET AT
20 KTS). LOOKING FARTHER OUT, WE STILL SEE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
FRONT MOVING UP OUT OF THE NORTHERN PACIFIC FRIDAY, BRINGING
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN INNER CHANNELS AND EASTERN GULF AK
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 05/GARMON
LONG TERM UPDATE
STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED ALONG THE OUTER
COASTLINE AND EASTERN GULF OF AK FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COULD BRING JUST UNDER GALES TO GALE FORCE
WINDS IN THE GULF WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MODELS COMING INTO
AGREEMENT MORE ON WIND SPEEDS AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS ABOVE 15 KT
LINGERING PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH, AND IN LYNN CANAL MONDAY. THE REST OF THE INNER CHANNELS
WILL REMAIN LARGELY BELOW 10 KT TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK WITH A MORE
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED. /CONTINO AND SULLIVAN
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM AKDT WED MAY 6 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE CONTINUES, WITH DRIER
WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE AK THROUGH THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, OCCASIONALLY PUSHING AREAS OF LIGHT, WETTING RAIN AND
DRIZZLE INTO THE REST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OVER THE PANHANDLE THURSDAY,
PUSHING ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION OUT AND ALLOWING SKIES TO
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY
WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE SEEING MANY LOCATIONS REACH INTO THE LOW 50S AND THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE POTENTIALLY SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. A HIGH
CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT PRECEDING A MORE ORGANIZED FRONT MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF.
A WEAK WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. POPS WERE INCREASED SOMEWHAT HEAVY-HANDED
THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY TO REPRESENT THIS BAND, THOUGH DUE TO THE
WEAK NATURE OF THIS INITIAL FRONT, MANY LOCATIONS MAY ONLY SEE
DRIZZLE OR WETTING RAIN WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
CHANNELS. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW QUICKLY BEHIND, MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. THE OUTER
GULF COAST WILL SEE A STRONGER AREA OF WINDS MOVE IN AND UP
CLARENCE STRAIT WITH THE FIRST BAND, THOUGH THE MAIN SWATH OF
STRONG WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE AND ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
SECOND BAND. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN, BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS PEAK
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH THE
MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS. THEY THEN LOOK TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
COULD HAVE REMAINING IMPACTS INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY DUE TO
CHANNELING. MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE PERSISTENT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO IMPROVE TO MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WHOLE PANHANDLE THAT WILL LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY.
FLOODING DOES NOT CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE A THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS 90% CONFIDENCE THAT THE MAXIMUM 24 HOUR
PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, 1.5 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
YAKUTAT, AND 1 INCH IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS
(DOWN TO 1300 FT) AND VIS (DOWN TO 5 MILES) THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OF THE LOWER CONDITIONS ARE AROUND THE NE GULF COAST NEAR YAKUTAT
(WITH OCCASIONAL IFR), BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POPPING
UP AROUND THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THE NE GULF COAST
WILL LIKELY STAY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR AT TIMES AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PULL LOWER CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AREA. THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY BE
MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT MOSTLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, OVERALL
CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY SHOULD IMPROVE FURTHER AS A RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF WITH MOST AREAS SEEING VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY
EXPECTED. WINDS ARE GUSTY (GUSTS TO 35 KT) AROUND N LYNN CANAL,
HAINES AND SKAGWAY THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHER
AREAS ARE MAINLY LOW WINDS WITH 15 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.
MARINE...
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): SOUTHWESTERLY FRESH BREEZES IN
THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH AND DIMINISH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 7 TO 8 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE STEADILY
DECREASING FOLLOWING THE WINDS, REACHING 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL AT AN 8 TO 10 SECOND PERIOD
HAS ALREADY DECREASED TO A MORE UNIFORM 2 FT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
CONTINUE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
MORE ORGANIZED FRONT BRINGS A SWATH OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
SURGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WITH WAVES REACHING
9-12 FT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE HIGH-END NEAR-GALE
FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH ALONG THE
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING A SWATH OF
15 TO 18 FT WAVES WITH A 14 TO 16 FT SWELL AT 12 TO 14 SECONDS
ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): SOUTHERLY WINDS IN LYNN CANAL ARE
CONSISTENTLY BLOWING AT 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN OVERNIGHT. PARTS OF CROSS SOUND AND
ICY STRAIT NEAR POINT COUVERDEN ARE ALSO STILL SEEING FRESH
BREEZES, EXPECTED TO STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 FT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LYNN CANAL SEEING 3 TO 5 FT SEAS AND
CHANNEL ENTRANCES SEEING CLOSER TO 5 TO 7 FT WITH THE PEAK WIND
SPEEDS BEGINNING TO DECREASE AS WELL. AS A LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN GULF THURSDAY, CHANNEL WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE NORTH
AND INCREASE TO A MODERATE BREEZE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH AND SWEEPS INTO THE
PANHANDLE. FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES WILL MOVE UP THROUGH THE
CHANNELS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING 3 TO 4 FT
SEAS THROUGH THE CHANNELS AND 7 TO 9 FT SEAS IN CHANNEL ENTRANCES,
PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN CLARENCE STRAIT.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AGP
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