262
FXAK67 PAJK 141835 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1035 AM AKDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATE
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, ALONGSIDE INCREASES TO QPF
FORECAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, AS SOME
OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF ~0.1 TO ~0.2 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF A FEW HOURS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. WINDS WERE ALSO INCREASED TO 25 KT IN TAIYA INLET, AS
SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT FLOW BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
SKAGWAY.
AVIATION
LINGERING FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE IS BRINGING
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY LOWER CEILINGS DOWN TO 1100 FT)
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. EARLIER IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS HAVE
LARGELY LIFTED ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 10 AM. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST TO AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE MANY AREAS TRY TO
IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS COULD
LIKELY LINGER IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. INTO TONIGHT
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR AGAIN FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD FOR
MANY AREAS THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
ONCE MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT FOR
MANY AREAS EXCEPT N LYNN WHERE SEA LEVEL WINDS OF 20 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH ARE BLOWING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE FALLING OFF THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PANHANDLE TAF
SITES, THOUGH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH MORE
CLEARING.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT
538 AM AKDT MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY, AND ARRIVES IN THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. EVEN WITH
CONTINUING SHOWERS, RAIN TOTALS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THE AREAS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ARE OVER STEPHENS PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS ONLY AROUND A 40 TO 60% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES IN 24 HOURS FOR THOSE AREAS. THIS DRYING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE GULF.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO OCCUR ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER END AS
WELL. THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS MORNING ARE LOCATED THROUGH LYNN
CANAL INTO HAINES AND SKAGWAY. EVEN THEN, WINDS REMAIN AROUND OR
BELOW 10 MPH WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL
ALSO DIMINISH INTO TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZES
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRIER WEATHER DAWNS OVER SE AK ON SATURDAY AS A NARROW RIDGE
BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE AREA. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, WARMING
CONDITIONS, AND A REDUCED, THOUGH NOT ZERO, CHANCE OF RAIN WILL
ALL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY, LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG WILL EXIST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY, AS CLEARING SKIES ENABLE RH VALUES TO APPROACH
100%.
SUNDAY WILL START OFF ON THE DRIER SIDE, AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME
HOURS, EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE PRECIP
FROM ARRIVING, THOUGH CHANCES OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF WILL HAVE BROUGHT
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE REGION, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SE AK, REACHING PAST THE OUTER
COAST AND INTO THE INNER CHANNELS. MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
RAIN, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY.
MARINE...
INNER CHANNELS: RATHER LOW WIND CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. SOME
NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS ARE SHOWING SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
THIS MORNING (N LYNN WITH 20 KT AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WITH 15 KT),
BUT MOST MARINE AREAS ARE 10 KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. THESE LOWER
WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THROUGH SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. SEAS TYPICALLY STAYING AROUND 3 FT OR
LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND ARE USUALLY WIND WAVE. SOME SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES WITH SW EXPOSURE DUE TO SW SWELL
OF 3 TO 5 FT EXPECTED IN THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.
GULF WATERS: QUIET WEATHER FOR THE GULF WITH MAINLY S WINDS OF 15
KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THEN 8 FT CURRENTLY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATE WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND THOUGH
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 7 FT OR
LESS WITH A SW SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...EAL
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