070
FXAK67 PAJK 150018
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
418 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY, AND ARRIVES IN THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LOW STILL SITTING OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. THE MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT BEFORE
FALLING APART BY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE UP TO ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR.
OVERALL EXPECTING LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THESE SHOWERS, WITH
ONLY UP TO AROUND 0.3 INCHES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS A RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
FROM FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH BEING PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE KEEPS SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND
WEAK SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD JUST OFFSHORE,
ALLOWING FOR A DRYING TREND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DRIER WEATHER WITH LOW TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS FROM A LOW
JUST EAST OF THE PANHANDLE IN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WHILE DRIER
WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, THE
RIDGE SITTING OFFSHORE WILL STILL KEEP SOME ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME
CLOUD COVER OVER SOME OF THE PANHANDLE FOR THE START OF THE DAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN B.C. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME CLOUD COVER
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN AND INLAND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HOWEVER
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR UP EARLIER IN THE MORNING AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR OFFSHORE FLOW. THE REST OF THE
PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR CLOSER TO MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE RATHER THAN SITTING JUST
OFFSHORE. LARGELY EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S, TO AROUND 60 FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE THAT WILL SEE MORE CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
SE AK. SUNDAY WILL START OFF ON THE DRIER SIDE, AND THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS, EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL HELP PREVENT THE WORST OF THE
PRECIP FROM ARRIVING, THOUGH CHANCES OF PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS
REMAIN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE GULF WILL HAVE
BROUGHT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE REGION, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SE AK, REACHING PAST THE OUTER
COAST AND INTO THE INNER CHANNELS. MONDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
RAIN, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
A LINGERING FRONT OVER THE PANHANDLE THAT BROUGHT
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS SLOWLY
LIFTING AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE OUTER COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
INTO TONIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS AND A MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR AGAIN FROM LATE
EVENING ONWARD FOR MANY AREAS THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING ONCE MORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT FOR MANY AREAS EXCEPT N LYNN WHERE SEA LEVEL WINDS OF
20 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH ARE BLOWING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
BEFORE FALLING OFF THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PANHANDLE TAF
SITES, THOUGH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH MORE
CLEARING.
MARINE
INNER CHANNELS: RATHER LOW WIND CONDITIONS FOR MOST
PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH A THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE
INTERIOR IS LEADING TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG LYNN CANAL
AND STEPHENS PASSAGE REACHING UPWARDS OF 20 KT WITH ISOLATED
GUSTS TO 30 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS
DAYTIME HEATING WANES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOWER WIND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY THROUGH SOME SOME
LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. SEAS TYPICALLY STAYING AROUND 3 FT OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS
AND ARE USUALLY WIND WAVE. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES WITH SW EXPOSURE DUE TO SW SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT EXPECTED
IN THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY.
GULF WATERS: QUIET WEATHER FOR THE GULF WITH MAINLY S TO SE WINDS
OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THEN 8 FT CURRENTLY. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEEKEND THOUGH WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
SOUTHERLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 7 FT OR
LESS WITH A SW SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE GULF LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...STJ
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