399
FXAK67 PAJK 151836
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1036 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION UPDATE FOR 18Z
AVIATION
FORECAST CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO VFR. LOW CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OUT FOR THE
PANHANDLE, AND A RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES. GUSTY SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KTS ARE FORECASTED
FOR THE PAGY AND PAHN REGION, AND THEY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLOMBIA COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES WITH MVFR CIGS FOR OUR EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PANHANDLE.
FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z WITH THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR VIS FOR TERMINALS IN THE SE,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN AREAL COVERAGE. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 531 AM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
- DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF SUNDAY, AND ARRIVES IN THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SE AK
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE GULF. SIMILARLY, WINDS ALSO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIMES OF WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS TO OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER. BOTH WIND AND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHEN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PROMINENT. THIS WILL BRING
DRIER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY INTO THE START OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT ENTERS THE GULF LATE SUNDAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE EAST, DUE TO AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA. ALONG WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 50S.
LONG TERM...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS, AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES SE AK. SUNDAY WILL START OFF ON THE DRIER SIDE,
AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, EXPECT THE RIDGE WILL HELP PREVENT
THE WORST OF THE PRECIP FROM ARRIVING, THOUGH CHANCES OF PRE-
FRONTAL SHOWERS REMAIN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, A FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
THE GULF WILL HAVE BROUGHT MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BACK TO THE
REGION, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SE AK,
REACHING PAST THE OUTER COAST AND INTO THE INNER CHANNELS. MONDAY
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN, WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. A LULL IS EXPECTED BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION.../THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT TIMES FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS LESS FOR THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR PAGY, PAHN, AS WELL AS NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. WITH
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH IFR VIS AND CIGS POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS WITH ENOUGH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. EVEN IF SEA BREEZES DO DEVELOP, WINDS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS
POSSIBLE. SEAS TYPICALLY STAYING AROUND 3 FT OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS
AND ARE USUALLY WIND WAVE. SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES WITH SW EXPOSURE DUE TO SW SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT EXPECTED IN
THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD, A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GULF REACHING THE PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS AND WAVES ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THING TO NOTE IS THE FACT THAT
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE GULF AS THE CURRENT LOW
PRESSURE DIMINISHES AND A RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS WILL START AS SE
FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 7 FT OR LESS WITH A SW SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FT
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF SUNDAY BRINGING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AND INCREASING WINDS. AT THIS TIME WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME SW AND INCREASE WITH TO GALE FORCE NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS. THESE
STRONG WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH TO CENTRAL
GULF COAST SUNDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM...GFS
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...EAB
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