918
FXAK67 PAJK 152345
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
345 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- A BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
- A GALE FORCE FRONT WITH WINDS 35 KT TO 40 KT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
RIDGING SETS UP IN THE EASTERN GULF, BRINGING A DRIER AND SUNNIER
DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE. LIGHT WINDS,
CLEARING SKIES, AND THE RIDGE SITTING JUST OFFSHORE BRINGS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT. AREAS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE SOUTH OF JUNEAU WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING, CLEARING AS THE SUN RISES. FROM YAKUTAT
DOWN INTO CROSS SOUND AND ICY STRAIT WILL BE SOME HIGHER POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, WITH A MARINE LAYER EXPECTING TO FORM
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NE COAST DOWN INTO THE CROSS SOUND AREA. THE
RIDGE OFFSHORE WILL BE KEEPING THIS LOW STRATUS LAYER ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE MORNING, RESTRICTING VISIBILITY FOR VESSELS ON THE
WATER EARLY IN THE MORNING AND IN SOME OF THE INLAND AREAS ON
CHICHAGOF ISLAND.
THIS DRIER WEATHER WILL END AFTER SATURDAY, AS A FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS GALE FORCE FRONT WILL
PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, BRINGING
ELEVATED SE TO S WINDS AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION AS
IT PASSES THROUGH. SOME AREAS ALONG THE OUTER COASTLINE WILL SEE
HEAVY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NE
COASTLINE AROUND YAKUTAT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEE TIMES OF UP TO
0.1 - 0.15 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING LARGELY BELOW 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION
IN 24 HOURS FOR MOST OF THE PANHANDLE, WITH THE NE COASTLINE FROM
YAKUTAT DOWN TO CROSS SOUND EXPECTING 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERALL DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY DIMINISHING,
HOWEVER WITH THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEPING A BROAD UPPER LOW
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA, THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA REMAINS IN A GENERAL ZONAL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS THAT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION IS PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
HARD TO TIME WEAK AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. WE
ARE NOT BITING OFF ON THE GFS OUTLYING SOLUTION OF A STRONGER
SURFACE REFLECTION (LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM) GENNING UP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF MIDWEEK, BUT OVERALL A GENERAL PATTERN OF
PERIODIC RAINS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES) CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. 05/GARMON
AVIATION
OTHER THAN SOME PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR. A RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL LEAD
TO DECREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 15 KTS HAVE BEEN OCCURING NEAR THE PAGY AND PAHN REGION,
AND THEY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA LOOKS POSSIBLE AFTER 10Z WITH THE RIDGE. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN LIFR VIS FOR PAYA, PAGS, AND PAPG. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP ELSEWHERE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS
LOW. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER BRITISH COLOMBIA COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS FOR THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE PANHANDLE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
VFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
TODAY SAW PROBABLY THE OVERALL LIGHTEST WINDS WE HAVE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA IN QUITE A WHILE (SPEAKING FOR THE ENTIRE WFO JUNEAU
MARINE FORECAST AREA), WITH 10 KTS OR LESS OVERALL WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TAIYA INLET WHERE THEY ARE GETTING A LIGHT SEABREEZE
TODAY AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME TOMORROW AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEAKENS. WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A BIT
MORE MARINE LAYER FOG FORM UP LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS AROUND YAKUTAT, ICY STRAIT, AND FREDERICK
SOUND. LATE TOMORROW, WE WILL BE WATCHING THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS (AROUND 974 MB) LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD, WITH
A GALE FORCE FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL
GULF MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THAT FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF GALE CONDITIONS (35-45KT) TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. WHILE WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF SE
ALASKA, WE DON'T EXPECT A BIG JUMP IN WINDS FOR THE INNER CHANNELS
OF SE ALASKA, WITH GENERALLY A PERIOD OF 15-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. 05/GARMON
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CONTINO
LONG TERM...GARMON
MARINE...GARMON
AVIATION...MUSALL/BUTWIN
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