295
FXAK67 PAJK 170107 CCA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
353 PM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUR BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY.
- A GALE FORCE FRONT WITH WINDS 35 KT TO 45 KT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR
THE OPEN GULF NORTH OF 57 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND FROM CAPE
SPENCER NORTH THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING.
SHORT TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/
OUR SHORT STINT OF DRIER WEATHER
TODAY COMES TO AN END BY TOMORROW AS A GALE FORCE FRONT OVER THE
GULF WORKS NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING A SWATH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
SE ALASKA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE ON THE
DAY SHIFT PRODUCTS, KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SE ALASKA
GENERALLY IN THE HALF INCH OR LESS CATEGORY...NOT ENOUGH FOR A
SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE FOR FLOODING ISSUES. IT WILL BET
BREEZY ALONG THE OUTER COAST, ALTHOUGH NOT TO WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE FRONT OVER THE GULF TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA...AND MAINLY OFFSHORE.
/GARMON
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MOISTURE LINGERING FROM MONDAY'S PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL
AND, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE CLEARING THOUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
OR MID WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE PANHANDLE, WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATION TOTALS AIMED AT THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, MAINLY YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED
TO DIMINISH AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
PANHANDLE WHICH ALSO BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR CLEARING SKIES GOING
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. /PEREZ
AVIATION
WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, CONDITIONS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN LYNN CANAL OF ABOUT 10-15
KTS THROUGH 4Z OR 5Z THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST
GENERALLY SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BRING IFR CIGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITY AS WELL. MODELS ARE LOOKING AT PAKT TO HAVE THE
MOST SUBSIDENCE, AND THEREFORE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR THE LOWEST
CONDITIONS (<20% CHANCE) OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO LIFR.
SUNDAY, A FRONT APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS AND
RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR PASI AND PAKW, THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER
21Z. THE TIMING OF THE LLWS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO
IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MARINE
NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON MARINE
FORECAST ISSUANCE. WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE THE GALE FORCE FRONT TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS 35-45 KT AND SEAS 15 TO 20 FT ARE STILL
EXPECTED FROM CAPE CAPE SUCKING TO JUST OFF CAPE SPENCER AND
NORTH OF THE 57TH PARALLEL. OVER THE INSIDE WATERS, WE GENERALLY
EXPECT LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS, ALTHOUGH INCREASED
GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE FRONT DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WINDS SPEEDS LOOK TO
BE LESS...GENERALLY 25 TO 30 KTS MAX. /GARMON
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-053-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...JG
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...JG
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