558
FXAK67 PAJK 171834
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1034 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION
A FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST ALONG THE WEST GULF COAST.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, IT WILL BRING RAIN AND
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AND WILL GENERALLY DROP CIGS TO IFR FOR PAGS
AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH. AS OF NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS CIGS ABOVE
500 FEET FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TAF SITES, BUT LIFR CIGS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AFTER 12Z.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PAYA, AND
PAJN SOUTHWARD. WINDS OF AROUND 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2,000
FT AGL AS THE FRONT PASSES, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR APPROXIMATELY 7-9
HOURS. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 436 AM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- OUR BREAK FROM THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY.
- A GALE FORCE FRONT WITH WINDS 35 KT TO 45 KT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY. GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR
THE OPEN GULF NORTH OF 57 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND FROM CAPE
SPENCER NORTHWEST THROUGH CAPE SUCKLING.
SHORT TERM...A BROAD LOW STRETCHING FROM THE NW GULF OVER TO THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE WILL THROW A GALE FORCE FRONT TOWARDS SE AK
SUNDAY. UPPER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER THE
OUTER COAST AND INNER CHANNELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THESE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PROVIDED JUST
ENOUGH OF A CAP OVER SE AK TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT COOLING
OVERNIGHT, CONTRARY TO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS ALSO HELPED TO MITIGATE
FOG FORMATION ALONG THE INNER CHANNELS, WITH ONLY KETCHIKAN AND
WRANGELL MANAGING TO REPORT SHALLOW STRATUS AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND THESE HIGHER CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH YAKUTAT ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST FIRST IN LINE AND
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE FOLLOWING SUIT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH NOT
ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE TO CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OFFSHORE OUT IN
THE GULF, HOWEVER COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP AND
COULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS COINCIDING WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND SHIFT ONCE THE FRONT LIFTS INLAND. RAIN WILL LAST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING MONDAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THE PANHANDLE NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE MOISTURE RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS TO START THE WEEK.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MOISTURE LINGERING FROM
MONDAY'S PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STICK AROUND THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL AND, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL SEE MORE CLEARING THOUGH THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY OR MID WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE,
WITH HIGHER ACCUMULATION TOTALS AIMED AT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE,
MAINLY YAKUTAT AND JUNEAU. RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH AGAIN
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE WHICH ALSO
BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
/PEREZ
AVIATION.../THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT
HAVE LEAD TO PATCHY LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, WITH BKN-OVC CIGS 5-10KFT NEAR PAKT AND PAWG, AS
EVIDENT ON LOCAL FAA WEBCAMS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS AS THE NEXT FRONT SPREADS RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SE AK TODAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY LOWER VIS DOWN TO MVFR AND
BRING DOWN CIGS TO MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR. INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BECOMING 10-20G20-30KT, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE DOWN
TO 10KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS FOR
PAGY AND PAKT LOOK TO STAY ELEVATED 10-15G20-25KT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LLWS INCREASES AS WELL TODAY AS WINDS 2KFT ALOFT BECOMING
30-40KT.
MARINE...
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): MOST OF THE INNER CHANNEL WINDS
DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, WITH THE PRIMARY EXCEPTIONS BEING
LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE WHICH CONTINUE TO SEE 15 TO 20 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AS OF 4 AM SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW WITH AN
ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE FRONT IS MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE GULF AND
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED OVER
CROSS SOUND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON TO AROUND
15 TO 25 KTS AS A RIDGE SLIDES IN BEHIND THE PREVIOUS FRONT.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE FORCE FRONT IS ADVANCING
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY, WITH BUOY 46082 ALREADY REPORTING
GUSTS UP TO 39 KT AS OF 430 AM. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KTS.
ALONG WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15
TO 20 FT SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE BEFORE DIMINISHING AND ONCE AGAIN
BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. EVEN AS GULF
WINDS GREATLY DIMINISH, SEAS WILL STRUGGLE TO SUBSIDE AND THUS
REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 FT INTO MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-036-053-641>643-661>663.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...DS/MUSALL
MARINE...STJ
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