363
FXAK67 PAJK 180006
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
406 PM AKDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE FORCE FRONT MOVES INLAND AND DIMINISHES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
- ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
- A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
A STRONG FRONT IS MOVING INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
KTS TO A MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES IN THE PANHANDLE. MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY, WITH THE MAIN FOCUSES
BEING TO PULL BACK THE SLIGHTLY FAST TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING
IN, INCREASING QPF TO MATCH THE CURRENT RATES, AND INCREASING
GUSTS ACROSS LAND AREAS. YAKUTAT HAS BEEN SEEING THE BRUNT OF THIS
FRONT WITH CONSISTENT MODERATE RAIN RATES LASTING THROUGH THE
DAY, AND THESE STRONG RATES HAVE JUST MADE IT TO JUNEAU AS WELL.
BOTH WINDS AND RAIN WITH THE MAIN FRONT WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE, THOUGH
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN
AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE SEEING PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN RATES AND THE OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO MONDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF
LOOKS TO PUSH INTO YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AND
OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND MOVING INTO
YAKUTAT PRECEDING THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAS A CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE AN OVERCAST
LAYER PRECEDING ANOTHER FAST-MOVING FRONT JUMPING INTO THE GULF
TUESDAY WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS NEXT
FRONT WILL BE MORE ORGANIZED AND BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE
PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FRONT MOVING IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN
TO THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRAILING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PEAK PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE CURRENT THINKING FOR TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE IS
80% CONFIDENCE THAT YAKUTAT WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1-1.75 INCHES,
JUNEAU TO RECEIVE 0.5-1.25 INCHES, SITKA TO RECEIVE 0.6-0.8
INCHES, AND KETCHIKAN TO RECEIVE 0.25-0.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
24 HOUR PERIOD MENTIONED. THERE ARE NO FLOOD RISKS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LOOK
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AND WILL SETTLE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES FULLY THROUGH THE
AREA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE
UNSETTLED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
OVERCAST CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
SOUTHERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
CLEARING INTERMIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WINDS LOOK BE MAINLY CALM FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED FRONT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION
A FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PAYA, WHERE THERE ARE
LIFR VSBYS. CONDTIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR PAYA, BUT RAIN WILL STILL BE AROUND.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE, IT WILL
BRING RAIN AND DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME IFR CIGS
BEFORE DAYBREAK FOR PAGS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR PAYA, AND
PAJN SOUTHWARD. WINDS OF AROUND 35-40KTS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 2,000
FT AGL AS THE FRONT PASSES, AND WILL CONTINUE FOR APPROXIMATELY 3-6
HOURS. FOR PAKT, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO STAY THROUGH 15Z.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE. BEHIND THE FRONT, AFTER 18Z MONDAY THERE WILL BE ON SHORE
FLOW, SO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL EXCEPT
FOR VFR AT PAGY AND PAHN.
MARINE
A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVER THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
COASTAL WATERS:
WINDS WILL EASE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING AND WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY,
SWELL WILL SHIFT TO BE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
RANGING 7-9FT AND WILL EASE TO 3-5FT BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN THE
EASING WINDS AND SWELL COMBINED SEAS IN THE OUTER/INNER COASTAL
ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM 15-17FT TO 6-8FT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM MONDAY
NIGHT ONWARD. THAT SAID, THERE ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
THAT COULD BOOST WINDS PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR COASTAL ZONES, AS OF
RIGHT NOW THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
GALE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
INNER CHANNELS:
AS OF THIS WRITING THE FRONT IS JUST NOW APPROACHING THE INNER
CHANNELS. DUE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT THE OVERALL FLOW IS
SOUTHEASTERLY. HOWEVER, E-W ORIENTATED CHANNELS WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE EASTERLY WINDS, AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE WINDS BEING
FORCED AROUND TERRAIN. THE STRENGTH OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
GOING TO BE DEPENDENT ON CHANNEL ORIENTATION AND ANY FUNNELING OF
WINDS THAT OCCURS. SEE CWF/MWW FOR THE LATEST MARINE PRODUCTS AND
MORE DETAILED WIND FORECASTS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING, ONCE THIS
OCCURS WINDS WILL EASE OVER INNER CHANNELS. LOOKING PAST MONDAY,
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AS OF RIGHT NOW LOW END SCA SEEM
TO BE THE MOST LIKELY BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS MORE HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE FOR THIS PERIOD. OTHER THAN
THESE SHORTWAVES THE ONLY THING TO NOTE WOULD BE LOCALIZED DIURNAL
AFFECTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE NARROWER CHANNELS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-022-031-034-036-053-641>643-
661>663.
SHORT TERM...ZTK
LONG TERM...AGP
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...BUTWIN
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