478
FXAK67 PAJK 181353
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
553 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE
- A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGS RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF
WEDNESDAY
SHORT TERM
A DECAYING FRONT IS CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND
MONDAY MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE PANHANDLE. ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, THE FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL POST FRONTAL SHOWERS SHOWING UP AS OF THIS DISCUSSION.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, AS
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH, WITH SHOWERS REMAINING LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE INTO TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE
TO THE FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM ASIDE FROM LOWERING WINDS IN
SOME PARTS OF THE INNER CHANNELS TO MATCH THE WEAKENING FRONT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO
YAKUTAT AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND MOVING INTO YAKUTAT PRECEDING THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, CLEARING SKIES
COULD LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IMPACTING
MARINE AND AIR TRAVEL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FRONT MOVING IN
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN
TO THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE TRAILING
OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PEAK PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BASED ON THE CURRENT THINKING FOR TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE IS
80% CONFIDENCE THAT YAKUTAT WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1-1.75 INCHES,
JUNEAU TO RECEIVE 0.5-1.25 INCHES, SITKA TO RECEIVE 0.6-0.8
INCHES, AND KETCHIKAN TO RECEIVE 0.25-0.55 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
24 HOUR PERIOD MENTIONED. THERE ARE NO FLOOD RISKS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN, WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LOOK
TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AND WILL SETTLE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING AFTER THE FRONT MOVES FULLY THROUGH THE
AREA.
THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO BE
UNSETTLED ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
OVERCAST CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. THE
SOUTHERN AND PART OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE COULD SEE PERIODS OF
CLEARING INTERMIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WINDS LOOK BE MAINLY CALM FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS
THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED FRONT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS TRENDING DEEPER, IT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING RELATIVELY BENIGN WINDS AND PRECIPITATION,
WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
CLARENCE STRAIT TO DIXON ENTRANCE REGION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WITH
90% CONFIDENCE THAT ANY HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THIS ARE LOW END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MAINLY MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS RAIN SLOWLY DIMINISHES BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. POCKETS OF IFR VIS/CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AS WINDS WILL BECOME 8-15KT THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONGER WINDS 15-22G25-32KT WILL DEVELOP FOR PAGY BEHIND THE
FRONT AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
NIGHT, POSSIBLY ALLOWING THE RETURN OF MVFR VIS/CIGS, ESPECIALLY
FOR PAYA. ANY LINGERING LLWS CONCERNS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF SE AK.
MARINE
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INLAND ACROSS
THE SE ALASKA PANHANDLE MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE FOLLOWING
MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
COASTAL WATERS:
AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, WINDS HAVE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY, SWELL HAS SHIFTED TO
BE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTERLY RANGING 7 TO 9 FT AND SHOULD EASE
TO 3 TO 5 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN THE EASING WINDS AND SWELL
COMBINED SEAS IN THE OUTER/INNER COASTAL ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO GO
FROM 15 TO 17 FT TO 6 TO 8 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THAT
SAID, THERE ARE A FEW SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THAT COULD BOOST
WINDS PRIMARILY IN THE NEAR COASTAL ZONES. AS OF THIS FORECAST,
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
INNER CHANNELS:
AS OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE INNER
CHANNELS AND BEGUN LIFTING INTO THE INTERIOR. E-W ORIENTATED
CHANNELS HAVE INCLUDING CROSS SOUND HAVE ALREADY REPORTED WINDS
SHIFTING WESTERLY, THOUGH ICY STRAIT HAS SPLIT FLOW AS OF THIS
DISCUSSION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY EASE OVER INNER CHANNELS AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT INLAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LYNN
CANAL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOOKING PAST MONDAY, WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, AS OF RIGHT NOW LOW END SCA SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE AS MORE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BECOMES
AVAILABLE FOR THIS PERIOD. OTHER THAN THESE SHORTWAVES THE ONLY
THING TO NOTE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO EXPECTED DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER FROM
FREDERICK SOUND SOUTHWARD.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-036-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-
671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...AGP/BAS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...STJ
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