466
FXAK67 PAJK 190530
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
930 PM AKDT MON MAY 18 2026
UPDATE
UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION TO INCLUDE THE 06Z SET OF
TAFS.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 735 PM AKDT MON MAY 18
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS SOME RAIN TO THE NORTHERN COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WEDNESDAY MORNING A GALE FORCE FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ A FRONT PASSED THIS
MORNING WITH WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND IT AN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
SHOWING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS STILL
AROUND AND EXPECT MOST ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES WHILE THE LEE SIDE
WILL SEE THE BEST BREAKS THIS EVENING. A BAND OF VORTICITY LOOKS
TO TRACK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, SO HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWER
POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FOR THAT, NAMELY ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE
IS ALSO CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT, SO EXPECTING A CHILLY NIGHT, SOME
PLACES THAT CLEAR OUT MORE ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE TEMPS INTO
THE MID 30S, GETTING CLOSE TO FROST POTENTIAL, BUT KEPT IT JUST
ABOVE THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHARPENS SOME FOR TUESDAY WITH NWLY FLOW, SO
MORE BREAKS ARE IN THE WORKS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER
CHANNELS (KETCHIKAN). ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AROUND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH BEST BREAKS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS. SOME
SUNSHINE WILL MAKE IT FEEL MARKEDLY WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS AND MADE A POINT TO HAVE TUESDAY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE ON OUR DOORSTEP TUESDAY NIGHT. YAKUTAT CAN
EXPECT RAIN BEFORE DAWN AND WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE S-SE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THROUGH DAY,
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL OUTER COAST IN
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON TO
REACH AS FAR EAST AS HYDER. LOOKING AT FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE WEST AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY TO MONDAY /
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS OR FADING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A POST
WEATHER FRONT (WEDNESDAY'S) SITUATION. THE ASSOCIATED LOW FEATURE
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEAKENS AND WILL BE GETTING ABSORBED
DURING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FRONT FROM A LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY. THE NEW FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. YAKUTAT SHOULD GOOD RAIN
RATES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE
FEATURE MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY
SO THE FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL
BAND FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / THE MODELS HERE
ARE STILL TRYING TO SETTLE INTO A PATTERN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
SYSTEM WILL SPIN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, MAINLY FOR SUNDAY, HOWEVER
ITS INTENSITY AND TRACK ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND A VARIETY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A 995 TO
1000 MB LOW HEADING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE LOW COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 985 MB, AND SOME OUTLIERS ARE POINTING TOWARD A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK AND WEAKER LOW. OVERALL THE WEEKEND MAY BE COOL AND DAMP
OR COULD BE WET AND WINDY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO MVFR. SOME AREAS
COULD SEE CEILINGS DECREASE FROM VFR DOWN TO MVFR THIS EVENING
WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS SKAGWAY COULD SEE MORE CLEARING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONE CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING WOULD BE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. SOME OF
THE TAFS REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL WITH SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES OR
FOG IN THE VICINITY. BUT PLACES WITH LESS CONFIDENCE WERE NOT
INCLUDED BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
TOMORROW, CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN THE SAME THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NE GULF COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY
RAIN RETURN BEFORE OTHER LOCATIONS WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
LOWER.
MARINE... WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONT WHICH MOVED THROUGH ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY
ARRIVES IN SE AK ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE N
AND NE GULF COAST, AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE INNER
CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LAST SYSTEM, AND SEAS WILL BE FOLLOWING SUIT MONDAY
EVENING, WITH SEAS TRENDING DOWN TO 6 TO 7 FT FOR MOST AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE N GULF EAST OF YAKUTAT BAY. WINDS TREND UPWARDS
ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF, AND BY TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER
COAST, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SE AK. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS
TO BE LARGELY FOCUSED AROUND THE NORTHERN GULF AND GULF COAST,
DOWN AS FAR AS CAPE FAIRWEATHER. WAVEHEIGHTS RAMP BACK UP AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES IN, REACHING 12-15 FT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND
WAVEHEIGHTS THEN DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: WINDS DIMINISH ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL, WHERE ELEVATED
FLOW OF ~20 KT PERSISTS. WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 10-15 KT ON
TUESDAY, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A WEAK WAVE MOVING
ONSHORE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES ONSHORE, ALONGSIDE
ELEVATED SEAS, WITH OCEAN ENTRANCES REACHING 10+ FEET, AND AREAS
WHERE SWELL REACHES SEEING ADDITIONAL INCLEMENT CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ641-651-652-661>663-672.
SHORT TERM...FERRIN
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...GFS
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