104
FXAK67 PAJK 191815
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1015 AM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2026
UPDATE
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 18Z ISSUANCE.
AVIATION
ON SHORE FLOW IS BRINGING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TODAY HAS BEEN YAKUTAT,
WHICH HAS EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO LOWER CLOUDS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. LLWS IS EXPECTED BEGIN AROUND 08Z
WITH 30 KTS AND INCREASING TO 40KTS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
FOR YAKUTAT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
WIND SPEEDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
TONIGHT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND. THE FOG WILL BRING US DOWN TO IFR
CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY STAY THROUGH THE RAINFALL ARRIVING WITH
THE FRONT AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH, BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT DOES LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN ARRIVING WITH THE
FRONT.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 526 AM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BRIEF LULL TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
LINGERING SHOWERS, PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
- WEDNESDAY A GALE FORCE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM...A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIDGE
OVER THE PANHANDLE TUESDAY MORNING. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL
LITTLE TO NO BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE PANHANDLE. THIS LACK
OF CLEARING LIMITED COOLING OVERNIGHT AND SUBSEQUENT FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MOST COMMUNITIES STAYING JUST ABOVE 40 DEGREES
AS OF 5AM.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO
SHARPEN TUESDAY, GIVING A BETTER CHANCE FOR CLEARING THROUGH THE
DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, PARTICULARLY COMMUNITIES ALONG CLARENCE
STRAIT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, WITH BREAKS OVER THE INNER CHANNELS.
BY LATE TONIGHT, A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST AND OUTER GULF
COAST ARE CURRENTLY SLATED TO SEE THE HIGHEST STORM TOTALS OF
AROUND 2 INCHES IN 24 HOURS, WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR OTHER COMMUNITIES IN THE PANHANDLE FROM CAPE DECISION
NORTHWARD TO ICY STRAIT. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE SOUTH OF CAPE
DECISION SHOULD SEE AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT.
LONG TERM.../ THURSDAY TO MONDAY /
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS OR FADING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN A POST
WEATHER FRONT (WEDNESDAY'S) SITUATION. THE ASSOCIATED LOW FEATURE
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEAKENS AND WILL BE GETTING ABSORBED
DURING THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FRONT FROM A LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY. THE NEW FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AND TO
THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. YAKUTAT SHOULD GOOD RAIN
RATES THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE
FEATURE MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY
SO THE FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL
BAND FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / THE MODELS HERE
ARE STILL TRYING TO SETTLE INTO A PATTERN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A
SYSTEM WILL SPIN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, MAINLY FOR SUNDAY, HOWEVER
ITS INTENSITY AND TRACK ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. ENSEMBLE MEANS
AND A VARIETY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A 995 TO
1000 MB LOW HEADING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF DIXON ENTRANCE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE LOW COULD BE AS STRONG
AS 985 MB, AND SOME OUTLIERS ARE POINTING TOWARD A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK AND WEAKER LOW. OVERALL THE WEEKEND MAY BE COOL AND DAMP
OR COULD BE WET AND WINDY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION.../THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CIGS 4-6KFT COULD
OCCASIONALLY DIP DOWN TO MVFR WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. FOR PAYA,
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MVFR
VIS/CIGS BECOMING LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STRONGER WINDS AROUND 10G20KTS FOR PAHN AND AROUND 20G30KTS FOR
PAGY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
DECREASING WINDS AND INCREASING NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIGS REDUCTIONS INTO THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. LLWS
WILL INCREASE FOR PAYA LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES
AND WINDS 2KFT ALOFT BECOME 30-40KT.
MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH MOVED
THROUGH ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY ARRIVES IN SE AK ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE N AND NE GULF COAST, AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LAST SYSTEM, AND SEAS HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVERNIGHT DOWN
TO 6 TO 7 FT FOR MOST AREAS BASED UPON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF, AND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER COAST, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SE
AK. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE LARGELY FOCUSED AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF AND GULF COAST, THOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS COULD EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE EDGECUMBE. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD RAMP BACK UP
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN, REACHING 12-15 FT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND
WAVEHEIGHTS THEN DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LONE
EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN WAS LYNN CANAL, WHERE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF ~20 KT PERSIST. WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 10-15 KT ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE BOARD, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ONSHORE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE, ALONGSIDE ELEVATED SEAS, WITH OCEAN ENTRANCES REACHING
10+ FEET, AND AREAS WHERE SWELL REACHES SEEING ADDITIONAL
INCLEMENT CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ652-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-032-033-053-641>644-651-661>663.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...DS/MUSALL
MARINE...STJ
VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page