529
FXAK67 PAJK 192347
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
347 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEDNESDAY A GALE FORCE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION.
- SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WEAKENING AND FALLING APART FRIDAY.
- QUICK LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS, IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SUMMER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
THE ACTIVE (BY SPRING STANDARDS) PATTERN LOOKS SET
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF
A ROSSBY WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC. A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK WILL
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS AS MOISTURE ROTATES IN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS,
FURTHER FUELED BY THE REMNANTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A FAR BETTER DEVELOPED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF,
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD ANCHORAGE. THE LOW WILL THROW A GALE
FORCE FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE, WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COAST AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SATURATION ACROSS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, MOST OF SE AK WILL SEE A
TOTAL OF ~1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY,THE
NE GULF COAST FAVORED FOR THE GREATER TOTALS. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, AS THEY COULD RECEIVE LOWER TOTALS
OF ~0.5 TO 1 INCH AS THE BULK OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH,
ALTHOUGH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THIS AREA. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, AS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AUGMENTATION OF THE STREAMS
FROM MOUNTAIN RUNOFF, ALONGSIDE THE RAIN ITSELF. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS - ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT -
AT WHITE PASS, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SE AK, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RIDGE, THE BEST CHANCES OF
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND THE INNER COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE SOUTH WILL BE MOSTLY
ON THE DRIER SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 40S OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
/ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / A FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. YAKUTAT SHOULD SEE GOOD RAIN RATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE FEATURE
MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY SO THE
FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL BAND
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / THE MODELS HAVE
STARTED TO AGREE ON A SYSTEM TO IMPACT PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AFTER MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA, MAINLY FOR
SUNDAY, HOWEVER ITS INTENSITY AND TRACK ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND A VARIETY OF OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD A 995 TO 1000 MB LOW HEADING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
DIXON ENTRANCE BY SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE LOW
COULD BE STRONGER, AND SOME OUTLIERS ARE POINTING TOWARD A MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND WEAKER LOW. OVERALL THE WEEKEND MAY BE COOL
AND DAMP OR COULD BE WET AND WINDY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION
OTHER THAN SOME BRIEF CIGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT
DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR, ON SHORE FLOW IS BRINGING GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
AND STRONG WINDS TO THE PANHANDLE. LLWS IS EXPECTED BEGIN FOR
YAKUTAT AROUND 08Z WITH 30 KTS AND INCREASING TO 45KTS AROUND 15Z.
ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED, AND THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO IFR FOR THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH CIGS AOA 700 FT AND VSBYS 3-4 SM.
TONIGHT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF FREDRICK SOUND. THE FOG WILL BRING THOSE LOCATIONS DOWN TO
IFR CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY STAY THROUGH THE RAINFALL ARRIVING
WITH THE FRONT AROUND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BASED ON SATELLITE,
KLAWOCK IS EXPERIENCING THE MOST CLEARING AND THE GREATEST CHANCE
FOR FOG. ALTHOUGH, BRIEF IMPROVEMENT DOES LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
RAIN ARRIVING WITH THE FRONT.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS):ON THIS BEAUTIFUL SOUTHEAST
DAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE IN THE RELATIVE CALM BEFORE THE GALE,
WITH COASTAL BUOYS AND ASCAT WINDS SHOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES OUT OF THE SOUTH; THE EXCEPTION IS CAPE ST. ELIAS, SEEING
ESE STRONG BREEZES. RIDING UNDERNEATH THESE WINDS WAS A
DIMINISHING SOUTHWEST SWELL, WITH BUOY 84 SHOWING AN ASTONISHINGLY
CLEAR SWELL SIGNAL 12-14 SECONDS AT 6 FT EARLIER TODAY. THE STORY
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE TODAY AS A GALE FORCE FRONT IMPACTS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS; CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
NEAR 48N 158W AND MOVING NORTHEAST. AS GALES BUILD ALONG CAPE ST.
ELIAS TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE
REST OF OUR COAST, REACHING NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE GALES FROM THE
FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS TO THE NORTHERN COAST. THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR WINDS TODAY REMAINS IN HOW FAR SOUTH GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL MOVE. MARINERS NORTH OF CAPE DECISION OPERATING ALONG
THE COAST SHOULD PLAN FOR A FEW HOURS OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES OVER, SOMETIME NEAR 2PM TO 5PM LOCAL TIME WEDNESDAY.
FRESH SEAS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DOMINATE, WITH
SOUTHWEST SWELL BEING MASKED AND SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS REACHING 12
TO 15 FT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WESTERLY SWELL OF 7 TO 9 FT AT 13 TO 15
SECONDS BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR COAST BY THE WEEKEND.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS):
WINDS ARE IN THEIR CALM PERIOD THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO BUILD OUT OF THE SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING PEAK INTENSITY OF STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR-
GALES THROUGH MANY INNER CHANNELS WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS IS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR SOMETIME IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING, DEPENDING ON WHERE YOU ARE IN SOUTHEAST,
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS FROM ICY STRAIT/TAKU SOUTH TO SUMNER.
HOWEVER, THE SIMPLE MESSAGE IS IT WILL BE A WET AND WINDY
WEDNESDAY, WITH SUBPAR CONDITIONS FOR FOLKS WISHING TO MOVE AROUND
IN SMALL RECREATIONAL VESSELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GREATLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ONE WORD OF CAUTION IS THE NORTHERN ARMS OF GLACIER BAY COULD BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS AN
OCCLUDING FRONT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO QUICKLY BECOMING SOUTH; THIS WIND SHIFT
COULD SURPRISE SOME FOLKS. MARINERS NEAR ANY LARGE INLETS IN THE
UPPER ARMS OF GLACIER BAY LIKE REID INLET SHOULD BE READY FOR
GALE FORCE GUSTS COMING OFF THE ICE FIELD. THESE GUSTS COULD BE
STRONGER.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ323-325-
327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...MUSALL
MARINE...AP
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