890
FXAK67 PAJK 200622
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2026
EVENING UPDATE AND 06Z AVIATION UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE GULF. THE MAIN CHANGE
HAS BEEN TO WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AS WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN AS
STRONG AS INITIALLY FORECASTED. CURRENTLY, THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF NEAR CAPE ST. ELIAS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 KTS OCCURRING. SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, BECOMING GALE FORCE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS PUSHES OVER THE AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN AND
STRONGEST ARE STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL REDUCE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE IMPACTS OF THIS FRONT AS
IT HAS REACHED YAKUTAT REDUCING CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT AND
VISIBILITIES AROUND 4 TO 6 SM. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH
EASTWARD, THE REST OF SE AK WILL SEE AVIATION CONDITIONS DECREASE
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE DUE TO LOWERED CEILINGS AOB 1500 FT, BUT WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DECREASE. ALONG WITH RAIN WE
WILL SEE WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS. OTHER AREAS WILL
ALSO SEE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS POSSIBLE. YAKUTAT IS THE MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
WIND SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS AROUND 2000 FT DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INLAND.
AS FOR FOG, FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE DUE TO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOONER THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED AND PROTECTED AREAS TO SEE
PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- WEDNESDAY A GALE FORCE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION.
- SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WEAKENING AND FALLING APART FRIDAY.
- QUICK LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS, IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY
THAT A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SUMMER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE
PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
THE ACTIVE (BY SPRING STANDARDS) PATTERN LOOKS SET
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD, AS A SERIES OF
TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUE TO MOVE UP ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF
A ROSSBY WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC. A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE AK WILL
SEE LINGERING SHOWERS AS MOISTURE ROTATES IN ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS,
FURTHER FUELED BY THE REMNANTS OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE IN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, A FAR BETTER DEVELOPED SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF,
DEEPENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD ANCHORAGE. THE LOW WILL THROW A GALE
FORCE FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLE, WHICH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER COAST AND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
REST OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT PERIODS OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SATURATION ACROSS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, MOST OF SE AK WILL SEE A
TOTAL OF ~1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. GIVEN THE SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY,THE
NE GULF COAST FAVORED FOR THE GREATER TOTALS. THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WILL BE THE EXCEPTION, AS THEY COULD RECEIVE LOWER TOTALS
OF ~0.5 TO 1 INCH AS THE BULK OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH,
ALTHOUGH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THIS AREA. FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
NOT EXPECTED, AS SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH AUGMENTATION OF THE STREAMS
FROM MOUNTAIN RUNOFF, ALONGSIDE THE RAIN ITSELF. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS - ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT -
AT WHITE PASS, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD, WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SE AK, WITH GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.
THE SYSTEM WILL DEPART ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS RIDGE, THE BEST CHANCES OF
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND THE INNER COASTAL MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE SOUTH WILL BE MOSTLY
ON THE DRIER SIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING DOWN
INTO THE LOW 40S OR EVEN UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
/ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / A FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. YAKUTAT SHOULD SEE GOOD RAIN RATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE FEATURE
MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY SO THE
FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL BAND
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / DAMP
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE NORM FOR SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY/TROUGH LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HOWEVER, WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A DECENT
STRENGTH SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE AREA YESTERDAY, HAS
SWITCHED TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH, TAKING ANY HIGHER WINDS AND PRECIP
MOSTLY WITH IT. ONLY THE GFS IS KEEPING MORE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (THOUGH IT IS AN
OUTLIER), AND EVEN THEN IT IS MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK DOES MEAN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE DRIER WEATHER COULD EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH AS WELL
IF THE CURRENT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE LOW TRACK CONTINUES. MONDAY
COULD ALSO TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE. INTO MID NEXT WEEK THE TREND REVERSES
BACK TO DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS AS MORE SYSTEMS COME INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF.
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT WHICH
MOVED THROUGH ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH RESPECTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN NORTHERN LYNN CANAL THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF ON TUESDAY ARRIVES IN SE AK ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE N AND NE GULF COAST,
AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO THE INNER CHANNELS.
OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS: WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE LAST SYSTEM, AND SEAS HAVE TRENDED DOWN OVERNIGHT DOWN
TO 6 TO 7 FT FOR MOST AREAS BASED UPON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WINDS
WILL TREND UPWARDS AGAIN ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF, AND BY
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OUTER COAST, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES SE
AK. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE LARGELY FOCUSED AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF AND GULF COAST, THOUGH GALE FORCE WINDS COULD EXTEND
AS FAR SOUTH AS CAPE EDGECUMBE. WAVEHEIGHTS SHOULD RAMP BACK UP
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN, REACHING 12-15 FT ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND
WAVEHEIGHTS THEN DIMINISH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS.
INSIDE CHANNELS: SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS ACROSS THE INNER
CHANNELS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LONE
EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN WAS LYNN CANAL, WHERE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF ~20 KT PERSIST. WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 10-15 KT ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE BOARD, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUSTAINED BY A
WEAK WAVE MOVING ONSHORE. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES
ONSHORE, ALONGSIDE ELEVATED SEAS, WITH OCEAN ENTRANCES REACHING
10+ FEET, AND AREAS WHERE SWELL REACHES SEEING ADDITIONAL
INCLEMENT CONDITIONS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ323-325-
327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.
UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...AP
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