697
FXAK67 PAJK 201319
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
519 AM AKDT WED MAY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
- WEDNESDAY A GALE FORCE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION.
- SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WEAKENING AND FALLING APART FRIDAY.
- QUICK LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SUMMER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE ALASKA GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE OUTER COAST BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO
YAKUTAT AND SITKA AS OF THIS DISCUSSION ALONG WITH STOUT WINDS IN
NEARBY WATERS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
ANCHORAGE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OUTER COAST
CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE (~1 TO 2
INCHES OVER 24 HOURS), WITH LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PANHANDLE SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT (0.5 TO 1 INCH OVER 24 HOURS).
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SE AK
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT.
DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WET NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED SINCE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS DOES MEAN
HOWEVER THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
WHITE PASS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND PUSHED INLAND, WITH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FOR MORE INFO ON WHAT TO EXPECT
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM
/ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / A FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. YAKUTAT SHOULD SEE GOOD RAIN RATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE FEATURE
MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY SO THE
FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL BAND
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / DAMP
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE NORM FOR SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY/TROUGH LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HOWEVER, WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A DECENT
STRENGTH SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE AREA YESTERDAY, HAS
SWITCHED TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH, TAKING ANY HIGHER WINDS AND PRECIP
MOSTLY WITH IT. ONLY THE GFS IS KEEPING MORE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (THOUGH IT IS AN
OUTLIER), AND EVEN THEN IT IS MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK DOES MEAN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE DRIER WEATHER COULD EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH AS WELL
IF THE CURRENT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE LOW TRACK CONTINUES. MONDAY
COULD ALSO TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE. INTO MID NEXT WEEK THE TREND REVERSES
BACK TO DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS AS MORE SYSTEMS COME INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF.
AVIATION
MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WITH MVFR CEILINGS STARTING TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DOWN TO MVFR WITH THE INCOMING
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
DURING THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
AND MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE, SOME AREAS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING AND COULD HELP TO BRING DOWN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN
TO IFR, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT TEND TO BE SHELTERED FROM
STRONGER WINDS.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES TO
APPROACH THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
FROM CAPE ST. ELIAS DOWN TO CAPE EDGECUMBE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW MORNING. WITH
THIS FRONT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-17 FT ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE DECREASING TO 9-12 FT THIS EVENING WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL COMPONENT. HEADED INTO THURSDAY, WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM
THE WEST. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 5-7 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL
WHICH IS ALREADY SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A GALE FORCE FRONT
CROSSES THE GULF WATERS BRINGING STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES FOR
THE INNER CHANNELS. WITH THESE INCREASING WINDS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DOWN TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR AKZ323-327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...SF
MARINE...SF
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