941
FXAK67 PAJK 201831 AAA
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1031 AM AKDT WED MAY 20 2026
MID-MORNING AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AS A GALE FORCE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE
INNER CHANNELS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS, WITH
STRONGEST GUSTS UP TO 40KTS WITHIN THE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED
CHANNELS LIKE GLACIER BAY, LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, CHATHAM
STRAIT, AND CLARENCE STRAIT. OVER LAND, WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS INNER CHANNEL COMMUNITIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SITKA TO KAKE TO PETERSBURG. STRONGER WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST COMMUNITIES AND AT SKAGWAY, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS SYSTEM, STILL EXPECTING AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN AND WINDS
DIMINISHING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT
TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO PREDOMINATE LOW-VFR/MVFR WITH CIGS AOB
3500FT, POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISBYS ALONG
THE GULF COAST TERMINALS OF PAYA AND PASI 21Z TO 04Z THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT TRACKS INLAND AND IN ITS WAKE, WITH A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, AFTER 16Z THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 10 TO 20KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST, AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU. LLWS
POTENTIAL HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST FOR PAYA AND PASI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SE-LY WINDS AROUND 40KTS, DIMINISHING TO AROUND
30KTS NEAR 2KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE.
PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 519 AM AKDT WED MAY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS...
- WEDNESDAY A GALE FORCE SYSTEM BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
REGION.
- SHOWERS OVER THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT
WEAKENING AND FALLING APART FRIDAY.
- QUICK LOOK AT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, A POTENTIALLY STRONGER SUMMER
SYSTEM COULD MOVE TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM...A DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE ALASKA GULF WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS ALREADY IMPACTING THE OUTER COAST BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO
YAKUTAT AND SITKA AS OF THIS DISCUSSION ALONG WITH STOUT WINDS IN
NEARBY WATERS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS
ANCHORAGE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OUTER COAST
CAUSING WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
FALL ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE (~1 TO 2
INCHES OVER 24 HOURS), WITH LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED FOR THE
PANHANDLE SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT (0.5 TO 1 INCH OVER 24 HOURS).
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SE AK
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT.
DESPITE THE UNSEASONABLY WET NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED SINCE SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS DOES MEAN
HOWEVER THAT SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
WHITE PASS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND PUSHED INLAND, WITH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING PRIMARILY FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. WINDS
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE QUICKLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT AS RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. FOR MORE INFO ON WHAT TO EXPECT
FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.
LONG TERM.../ FRIDAY TO TUESDAY / A FRONT SWEEPS THE WESTERN GULF
THURSDAY EVENING AND TO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. YAKUTAT SHOULD SEE GOOD RAIN RATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING, AS THE FEATURE
MOVES WAY FROM THE PARENT LOW WHICH STAYED OVER BRISTOL BAY SO THE
FEATURE THAT ROLLS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY IS A FRONTAL BAND
FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OVER THE GULF TO THE PANHANDLE FOR THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND / SATURDAY TO MONDAY / DAMP
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE NORM FOR SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF
VORTICITY/TROUGH LIKE FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE. HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
SOUTHWARD, THOUGH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT. FOR
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HOWEVER, WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A DECENT
STRENGTH SYSTEM HEADING TOWARD DIXON ENTRANCE AREA YESTERDAY, HAS
SWITCHED TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH, TAKING ANY HIGHER WINDS AND PRECIP
MOSTLY WITH IT. ONLY THE GFS IS KEEPING MORE IMPACTFUL WINDS AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY (THOUGH IT IS AN
OUTLIER), AND EVEN THEN IT IS MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PANHANDLE. THIS FARTHER SOUTH TRACK DOES MEAN A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE
TO DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS FROM EASTERLY FLOW, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE DRIER WEATHER COULD EXTEND INTO THE SOUTH AS WELL
IF THE CURRENT SOUTHWARD TREND OF THE LOW TRACK CONTINUES. MONDAY
COULD ALSO TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING THE UPPER 50S WITH SEVERAL BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE. INTO MID NEXT WEEK THE TREND REVERSES
BACK TO DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS AS MORE SYSTEMS COME INTO THE
PANHANDLE FROM THE GULF.
MARINE... OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE FORCE FRONT
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS EXPECTED FROM CAPE ST. ELIAS DOWN TO CAPE EDGECUMBE DURING
THE DAY TODAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THIS FRONT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 12-17 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BEFORE DECREASING TO 9-12
FT THIS EVENING WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL COMPONENT. HEADED INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS ACROSS THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES FROM THE WEST. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS
TIME ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5-7 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES CONTINUE FOR MOST
OF THE INNER CHANNELS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LYNN CANAL
WHICH IS ALREADY SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A GALE FORCE FRONT
CROSSES THE GULF WATERS BRINGING STRONG BREEZES TO NEAR GALES FOR
THE INNER CHANNELS. WITH THESE INCREASING WINDS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DOWN TO
MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZES AS WELL AS DIMINISHING SEAS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ323-327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ642>644-651-652-662>664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>036-053-641-661.
UPDATE...NM
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...BEZENEK/EAL
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...SF
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