637
FXAK67 PAJK 202308
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
308 PM AKDT WED MAY 20 2026
SYNOPSIS
-A GALE FORCE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY,
DEPARTING ON THURSDAY.
-LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVIEST OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
-A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY, WITH A LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL SE AK BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
THE BIG STORY REMAINS THE GALE FORCE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING FROM
W TO E ACROSS THE PANHANDLE BRINGING PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN AND
WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. STILL ANTICIPATING RAINFALL TOTALS
WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE ~1-2 INCHES, WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FOR
AREAS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW WILL
HAVE DEPARTED SE AK, LEAVING BEHIND CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AS
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN AXIS OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER SE AK. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE CONCENTRATED OVER AREAS NORTH OF SITKA AND FOR LOCATIONS
FURTHER INLAND. PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE COULD EVEN SEE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG LEESIDE TERRAIN.
LONG TERM
/ SATURDAY TO WEDNESDAY / WEATHER FRONT THAT IS
WEAKENING AND FALLING APART WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE SATURDAY AS THE PARENT LOW FOR IT WAS STILL OVER EASTERN
BERING SEA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA , BUT AS A RESULT, ENERGY
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN OVER THE TOP AND THROUGH THE GULF. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. LOW RUNS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RAIN SHIELD EXTENDS NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/RAIN WILL
CONTINUE.
AFTER THE LOW PASSES BY, THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND NE GULF COAST AND WORKING WAY TO THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE DURING THE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW
HAVE LOW CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN THE
PANHANDLE AREA TUESDAY AND A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM THAT COULD SEE A
SECONDARY TRAILING WAVE FOR THE WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
/THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
MVFR TO VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH RAIN ONGOING ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT
TRACKS INTO THE NE GULF. FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO PREDOMINATE LOW-VFR/MVFR WITH CIGS AOB
3500FT, WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISBYS ALONG THE GULF
COAST TERMINALS OF PAYA AND PASI. ANTICIPATING MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS FRONT TRACKS INLAND AND IN ITS
WAKE, WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON 10 TO 20KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST, AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ICY STRAIT CORRIDOR, INCLUDING JUNEAU. LLWS
POTENTIAL HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST FOR PAYA AND PASI THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SE-LY WINDS AROUND 40KTS, DIMINISHING TO AROUND
30KTS NEAR 2KFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): A GALE FORCE FRONT CONTINUES
TO APPROACH THE GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM CAPE ST. ELIAS DOWN TO THE FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS ONGOING.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TOMORROW MORNING. WITH
THIS FRONT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12-17 FT ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS BEFORE DECREASING TO 9-12 FT THIS EVENING WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL COMPONENT. HEADED INTO THURSDAY, WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
FROM THE WEST. WAVE HEIGHTS DURING THIS TIME ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DROP TO AROUND 5-7 FT.
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS AS A GALE FORCE FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE NE GULF COAST, BRINGING WIND SPEEDS OF STRONG
BREEZE TO NEAR GALES FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE INNER CHANNELS LIKE
LYNN CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE AND WINDS UP TO FRESH BREEZE
WIDESPREAD. WITH THESE INCREASING WINDS, WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 3-6 FT WITH HIGHER SEAS EXPECTED NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DOWN TO MODERATE
TO STRONG BREEZES AS IN TANDEM WITH DIMINISHING SEAS. BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOMORROW WITH
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS 10KTS OR LESS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE INNER CHANNELS, OUTSIDE OF N
LYNN WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE ELEVATED WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25KTS.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ317.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM AKDT THURSDAY FOR AKZ318.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR AKZ323-327.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ644-651-652-663-664-671-672.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-022-031>034-053-641>643-661-
662.
SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...BEZENEK
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NM
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