171
FXAK67 PAJK 281822
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1022 AM AKDT THU MAY 28 2026
..MORNING UPDATE AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN
IN THE GULF ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE BRINGING
MOISTURE TO SE AK. WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
BELOW 15 KTS ACROSS THE INNER CHANNELS. STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL
OCCUR NEAR HAINES INTO TAIYA INLET AND SKAGWAY. WINDS IN THAT AREA
ARE STARTING TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS OF THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE THE
SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TO AROUND 5 TO 7 FT.
AVIATION
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING VARIABLE
FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MAINLY BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR. CEILINGS MAINLY
REMAIN AOA 2000 FT WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS.
ALONG WITH THIS, VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR.
THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES, AROUND
3 SM DUE TO SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS. STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, SHOWERS WILL LIGHTEN AS THE FIRST INITIAL SHORTWAVE
PASSES THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHORT SLIGHTLY DRIER
PERIOD, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS AOA 3000 FT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS BACK LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE
DRY WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVER AREAS ALONG FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE KAKE AND PETERSBURG, AND
SOUTHWARD. STILL VARIABLE, BUT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE.
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
THE MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME; COOL, RAIN SHOWERS,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS (IGNORING
LOCALIZED SECTIONS OF LYNN CANAL) AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE
AROUND STALLED AND WEAKENING BROAD SYSTEM IN THE GULF INTO
SATURDAY. ONE NOTE IS THAT THESE RAIN SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES AND BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. THESE SHOWERS, COMBINED
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW CLOUDS, SURE MAKES IT FEEL LIKE
IT ISNT ALMOST THE FIRST OF JUNE; HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED
THAT THE NORMAL TEMPERATURE RANGE THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR MOST OF
THE REGION IS 40F TO 60F. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND BY LATE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST BIT OF NEXT WEEK,
REFERENCE THE LONG TERM BELOW FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON THIS
MATTER.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/ BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS THEN A SHIFT TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW
PACIFIC BY MID NEXT WITH WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER NW CANADA
AND INTERIOR ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE THIS TRANSLATES TO A WEAKENING
LOW PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ONSHORE FLOW WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE PANHANDLE.
AFTER THAT POINT, THE TREND IS TOWARD DRIER, WARMER AND SUNNIER
WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE GULF
LOW GETTING ABSORBED INTO A STRONGER LOW MOVING INTO NW PACIFIC BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING STARTING TO BUILD OVER THE
PANHANDLE. SOME ISSUES ON TIMING OF WHEN THE BETTER WEATHER WILL
START AS THE SHOWERS COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
OFFSHORE FLOW STARTS UP IN ERNEST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOOKING GOOD
FOR AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING DRY AND WARM.
OF THOSE DAYS, TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR
MANY AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO POSSIBLE LOW 70S
FOR HIGHS. WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE WHAT THE MARINE LAYER LOW
CLOUDS DO IN THE GULF AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST DURING THIS TIME,
BUT BASED ON OVERALL FLOW BEING MORE E TO SE, THE LOW CLOUDS MAY
STAY MOSTLY OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MIGHT
RETURN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE.
MARINE
OUTSIDE: WAVEHEIGHTS WILL BE ON A SLOW DOWNWARD TREND ON
THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF
WILL BE BELOW 8 FT (BARRING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF), AND BY
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE CONFINED TO 4 TO 6 FT.
WINDS WILL BROADLY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE, REACHING UP TO 15-20
KT AT TIMES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF, WHILE
REMAINING 10-15 KT FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SWELL OF UP TO 12
FT FROM THE SW CURRENTLY WILL STEADILY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, REACHING 2-3 FT FROM THE SW BY SATURDAY.
INSIDE: WINDS OF 5-15 KT FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL
SURGES OF BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND
A DECAYING LOW IN THE GULF, AND INTO THE SE AK. LYNN CANAL WILL
PROVE TO BE THE BIG EXCEPTION, WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
672.
UPDATE...EAB
SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...BEZENEK
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