622
FXAK67 PAJK 282228
AFDAJK
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
228 PM AKDT THU MAY 28 2026
SYNOPSIS
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY, PRIMARILY FOR THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
AS STATED THURSDAY MORNING, THE MAIN STORY FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO END THE WEEK IS COOL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN
SHOWERS, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS LARGELY REMAINING BELOW 20 KNOTS.
THE SOURCE OF THESE SHOWERS IS A BROAD LOW IN THE GULF THAT WILL
REMAIN STALLED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
OCCASIONALLY SPINNING UP ON THE PERIPHERY. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, A
RELATIVE DRY SLOT IS ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING OF CLOUDS OVER THE
REGION. THIS IN TURN WILL INCREASE FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY MORNING
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL INNER CHANNEL COMMUNITIES. IN THE FAR
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, CLEARER SKIES WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE HAINES
AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO AGREEMENT
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE PANHANDLE
SATURDAY WITH ENHANCED VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT. THIS HAS
PROMPTED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SATURDAY AS
THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING, HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE PELLETS ARE MORE LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS SHOULD PROVE TO BE A LAST GASP FOR THE PARENT LOW IN THE
GULF AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
DIMINISHING SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE. FOR
MORE INFO ON THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO
START NEXT WEEK, SEE THE LONG RANGE DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL BE IN A STATE OF TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE AND THE
GULF OF ALASKA FOR SUNDAY AS WE SWITCH OUT OF A BROAD COOL UPPER
TROUGH THAT DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK. THE
PATTERN WILL BE SWITCHING TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NW
PACIFIC WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF ALASKA
AND THE YUKON.
AT THE SURFACE, THIS TRANSLATES TO A SOMEWHAT STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NW PACIFIC WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE PANHANDLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THIS PATTERN THE TREND IS TOWARD WARMER, DRIER, AND SUNNIER
WEATHER ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THE WARM UP, BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S LIKELY (ISOLATED AREAS OF NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
ARE POSSIBLE) AS OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES THE STRONGEST AT THAT POINT
LIKELY CANCELING OUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES IN SOME AREAS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY AREAS TO EXCEED RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY, BUT SOME
AREAS COULD GET CLOSE (RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY FOR MANY AREAS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). MARINE LAYER LOW CLOUDS IN THE GULF
AND ALONG THE OUTER COAST MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR FOR THIS
PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NE TO E DIRECTION
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP THOSE LOW CLOUDS WELL OFFSHORE.
AT THE MOMENT, THE NICER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH
BEYOND MID WEEK. AN EASTERLY WAVE FROM BC IS LOOKING LIKELY TO
MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE FROM SE TO NW POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY MORNING (THOUGH IT COULD BE AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY
EVENING) BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CLOUDS TO THE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE FAIRWEATHER SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY MAY BE DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVING IN (NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE MID 50S TO 60).
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS, MAINLY BETWEEN MVFR TO VFR. CEILINGS
MAINLY REMAIN AOA 2500 FT WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ALONG WITH THIS, VISIBILITIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
VFR. STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, SHOWERS WILL
LIGHTEN AS THE FIRST INITIAL SHORTWAVE PASSES THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SHORT SLIGHTLY DRIER PERIOD, WITH MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
AOA 3000 FT. MULTIPLE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN THESE LIGHTER
SHOWERS WITH CLEARING SKIES AS THIS INITIAL WAVE PASSES THE AREA.
ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY WILL THEN BRING SHOWERS BACK LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE LOOKS TO
REMAIN MORE DRY WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVER AREAS ALONG FREDERICK SOUND, LIKE KAKE AND
PETERSBURG, AND SOUTHWARD. STILL VARIABLE, BUT SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE.
MARINE
INSIDE (INNER CHANNELS): WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AS A
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE GULF AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SE
AK. SOUTHERLY AND EASTERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES OF 5 TO 15 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL INTO TAIYA INLET AND OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CLARENCE STRAIT ON SATURDAY. EVEN THEN THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS. FOR OTHER LOCATIONS, THERE
WILL BE TIMES OF SLIGHTLY GUSTIER WINDS DUE TO SHOWERS MOVING OVER
THE AREA. OTHERWISE, LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES CAN QUICKLY CREATE A
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE WINDS. STARTING LATE
THIS MORNING WE SAW A SEA BREEZE DEVELOP AROUND THE JUNEAU AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME EASTERLY AND
DECREASE THIS EVENING.
FOR THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF FOG TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KTS. FOG POTENTIAL
SEEMS MOST LIKELY OVER FREDERICK SOUND AND SUMNER STRAIT, ESPECIALLY
IN PROTECTED AREAS.
OUTSIDE (GULF AND COASTAL WATERS): WAVEHEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACT ACROSS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT WAVES AROUND 8 FT CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WAVES
WILL THEN REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
ALSO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AROUND SE 10 TO 15 KTS BEFORE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME WINDS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25
TO 30 KTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN FARTHER
OFFSHORE WITH THE GULF COAST WINDS REMAINING AROUND 15 KTS. THE MAIN
CHANGE TO THE NEARSHORE / COASTAL WATERS AREA WILL BE THAT WIND
DIRECTION WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ022-641>644-651-661>664-671-672.
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...EAL
AVIATION...EAB
MARINE...EAB
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